Based on the last election results for Menzies, this election could be very close. It may all come down to preferences. I've found most people don't understand their preferences are just as important as their primary vote.
Here's a link to the 2016 Federal election.
https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-229.htm
You can see Liberal Party won outright, but they only received 51.72% of the first preference votes. With over 50% of first preferences the Liberal Party couldn't lose. But what if there was a further swing against the liberal party which took them below the 50% mark. Still highly unlikely they'd lose, but it could happen.
All that then needs to happen is for all second preference votes to go Labor. Hard to believe isn't it. A party that gets around a quarter of the vote could actually get in. Whilst it may even be harder to believe, if a strong third contender entered the race taking votes from both the Liberal and Labor parties, then getting strong preference support, it's a really long shot, but the third candidate could have a slim chance.
How then do preferences work and how is it possible that preferences are so powerful.
Let's take a simple example.
Let's say the Liberal Party gets 49% of the first preference votes. Then an independent gets say 26% of the first preference votes and Labor gets 25% of the first preference votes.
Now what happens in our system, is since in the example above the Labor candidate came last, the way people entered their preferences are then used to split up the votes for the remaining two candidates. If everyone that voted for Labour listed their second preference as the independent, then all the votes for the Labor candidate would go to the independent. The independent would now end up with their 26% of first preference votes and the 25% of the Labor candidates votes as a second preference, giving the independent a total of 51% of the votes.
Few people realise the second preference vote has as much voting power as their first preference, should the candidate they're voting for end up with a lower number of votes than the leading candidates.
Candidates may do a deal with other candidates to give their preferences to each other. They don't really give anything, but what they do is list the order of how they feel people should vote. The order can be based on the deal that's been done that gives them the best chance of getting in.
Menzies is not a marginal seat. Around 77% of the votes at the last election went to Liberal (51.72%) or Labor (24.6%). There were 5.02% of informal votes (votes not entered correctly) and thus they didn't count. That leaves 18.66% of the vote for other candidates. That means no other candidate had a chance of winning, even if preferences were taken into account. As the preferences are taken into account and those candidates receiving the lowest number of votes removed, you finally end up with the two party preferred votes. Of the second and further preferences (20,656) the Liberal Party received a further 7,709 votes (37%) and the Labor Party received 12,947 votes (63%).
If you really want to make a difference with your vote, one way to maximise the value of your vote is to look at your preferences. Look at which parties are giving their preference to which candidates. Then vote for the candidate you most prefer and then each further candidate based on how they are allocating their preferences. There's a good chance a higher proportion of people will follow the candidate's How to Vote card and that will influence the very powerful preference votes.
Hopefully this post helps people understand a little more about our election system, and how truly powerful and important your second and further preferences really are.
Kelvin Eldridge
Here's a link to the 2016 Federal election.
https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-229.htm
You can see Liberal Party won outright, but they only received 51.72% of the first preference votes. With over 50% of first preferences the Liberal Party couldn't lose. But what if there was a further swing against the liberal party which took them below the 50% mark. Still highly unlikely they'd lose, but it could happen.
All that then needs to happen is for all second preference votes to go Labor. Hard to believe isn't it. A party that gets around a quarter of the vote could actually get in. Whilst it may even be harder to believe, if a strong third contender entered the race taking votes from both the Liberal and Labor parties, then getting strong preference support, it's a really long shot, but the third candidate could have a slim chance.
How then do preferences work and how is it possible that preferences are so powerful.
Let's take a simple example.
Let's say the Liberal Party gets 49% of the first preference votes. Then an independent gets say 26% of the first preference votes and Labor gets 25% of the first preference votes.
Now what happens in our system, is since in the example above the Labor candidate came last, the way people entered their preferences are then used to split up the votes for the remaining two candidates. If everyone that voted for Labour listed their second preference as the independent, then all the votes for the Labor candidate would go to the independent. The independent would now end up with their 26% of first preference votes and the 25% of the Labor candidates votes as a second preference, giving the independent a total of 51% of the votes.
Few people realise the second preference vote has as much voting power as their first preference, should the candidate they're voting for end up with a lower number of votes than the leading candidates.
Candidates may do a deal with other candidates to give their preferences to each other. They don't really give anything, but what they do is list the order of how they feel people should vote. The order can be based on the deal that's been done that gives them the best chance of getting in.
Menzies is not a marginal seat. Around 77% of the votes at the last election went to Liberal (51.72%) or Labor (24.6%). There were 5.02% of informal votes (votes not entered correctly) and thus they didn't count. That leaves 18.66% of the vote for other candidates. That means no other candidate had a chance of winning, even if preferences were taken into account. As the preferences are taken into account and those candidates receiving the lowest number of votes removed, you finally end up with the two party preferred votes. Of the second and further preferences (20,656) the Liberal Party received a further 7,709 votes (37%) and the Labor Party received 12,947 votes (63%).
If you really want to make a difference with your vote, one way to maximise the value of your vote is to look at your preferences. Look at which parties are giving their preference to which candidates. Then vote for the candidate you most prefer and then each further candidate based on how they are allocating their preferences. There's a good chance a higher proportion of people will follow the candidate's How to Vote card and that will influence the very powerful preference votes.
Hopefully this post helps people understand a little more about our election system, and how truly powerful and important your second and further preferences really are.
Kelvin Eldridge
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