There's many people who are going to smaller towns thinking they're safer. What the country and smaller towns don't realise is they generally have infected people in their area. So really, is the holiday house any safer than being at home. The answer depends and in many cases, it might not be. Make sure you think things through.
I decided to get the coronavirus cases data for the 2nd of March for the Local Government Areas across Victoria. Yes there are less people in regional areas, but it's not really the number of cases that's important, it's the number of cases per head of population. Some regional areas will actually have more infections per head of population than some city areas.
For example, I live in Manningham. There's 17 cases of coronavirus for a population of 125,508 (2018 population statistics) meaning there's 13.5 cases per 100,000 people. Now if I had a holiday house in the Mornington Peninsula, would I consider it safer to go to the holiday house. Most people would think so. However if you look at the data there's been 29.5 cases per 1000. That's over double the number of cases and the way I look at that, twice the chance of coming into contact with someone who is infected.
In addition I have a lot of choices around me from milk bars, petrol stations, small grocery shops to the majors where I can buy goods and services. In the holiday regions everyone goes to the same place. There's really not that much choice. If something goes wrong the medical facilities are often quite limited.
The following is a link to the table I created which shows for each Local Government Area, the number of cases, the population and the number of cases per 100,000 people.
So before you head off thinking you're improving your safety perhaps check the numbers. Do you really want to go to an area where the risk is greater? Knowing the numbers means you can make a better decision for you and your family.
Kelvin Eldridge
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