Saturday, June 27, 2020

A third of international travellers refusing COVID-19 testing in hotel quarantine. What's the impact?

When I first read the headline I thought to myself, "why are people refusing to be tested for coronavirus?" Then I started to think is it just a headline to grab attention (we all get annoyed by people not towing the line), or does it really matter.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-third-of-returned-travellers-victorian-hotspots-refuse-testing/3ef1d03e-d690-4a66-aea0-f24e63b31fdb

I then thought, "the best thing to do is look at the numbers and then you can keep things in perspective". As of writing this post I've not yet looked at all the numbers so until I finish this post I won't really know myself.

First the numbers. From the following post on the ABC site we get that since hotel quarantine has come into place there's been 63,000 people who have been quarantined.


Interestingly there's been 81,000 people who have entered Australia which means around 18,000 people have not entered hotel quarantine or around 22% of the people. These people flight crew, international businesspeople and defence members as they operate under different rules.

The next interesting figure is 62% of cases were acquired overseas.

Next, how many cases of coronavirus have we had and that number as of today is 7,595. Of those cases if we say 62% were acquired from overseas if means there were 4,708 from overseas.


Next we need to keep in mind hotel quarantine started on the Saturday night of March 28. As of March 28 there were 3639 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Since hotel quarantine started there's now 7,595 and thus there's been 3,936.

We can't be sure how many of the people who didn't get hotel quarantine are infected, but let's simply assume the proportion is the same. That means we get 3,936 divided by 81,000, or around 4.8%.

If you're a returned traveller quarantined in a hotel there's roughly a 4.8% chance you've been infected. That's a reasonable percentage.

However, if you've been quarantined for 14 days that means even if you did catch COVID-19, there's over a 97% chance you're no longer infectious. Potentially that means there's a 0.14% chance a returned traveller will be infectious after 14 days. Further, for the 30% who don't get tested, it means we're now down to 0.04% that one of those people is infected. That's just 4 out or 10,000 people.

Now we're talking about very low numbers and if the person is infected, they or people around them will develop symptoms and at that point, if the person was infected that will become known.

So really if you look at the number, and hopefully I've got the numbers right, the fact that people who are hotel quarantined don't get tested, it's not something that should be a concern. It really is just the media getting a good headline.

Personally I'd be much more concerned about the people who do not enter quarantine because the general public have no idea of what rules apply to them when they enter Australia. A simple search of Google shows there have been reported cases of defence force and airline staff being infected.

Kelvin Eldridge

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Wednesday, June 24, 2020

The Age - Contact tracing concerns raised by doctor with links to COVID-19 case

It's always interesting to read other people's opinions and to get inside information based on the experience of others. In the following article a doctor raises concerns about contact tracing in Victoria.


The situation is the doctor's wife carpools where driving is shared across two families. The doctor's wife drive's their son and two children from the other family. The father in the other family was tested positive for coronavirus.

So we have this situation
Father in first family tested positive for coronavirus
Wife and two children of the infected person are yet to be tested to see if they're infected.
Friend drives their son and the infected person's two children to or from school.
The doctor who is the husband of the friend (his wife) who drives the three children, considers their family a close contact of the infected person.

The doctor calls the health department concerned about potential transmission to find the wife of the infected person and their two children are yet to be tested. The doctor and his family don't need to get tested or go into isolation. Until the infected person's wife and two children are tested and the results come back, the doctor and his family are free to go about their lives as normal.

Sometimes what our government does simply makes no sense. Instead of asking the close contacts of an infected family to self isolate for a short period of time until test results are back, these people who could potentially be infected are told they can go about their normal activities. On the other hand the government calls entire local government areas hotspots, fines people for the most mundane relatively risk free activities. None of this makes sense.

It really does show that at the end of the day it is up to each of us to do what we think is best for ourselves, or family and our community. Just because the government says you can go about your normal activities, if you don't think that is the best thing to do, then that's your call.

Further the doctor was having a dinner with two other families when they received the call about their infected friend. To the credit of the doctor and the two other families, they decided to all self isolate until they heard back about the test results for the infected person's family.

Time and time again we see the government doings things too late or too little. Then using broad ranging control measures that are far too excessive. The government operates at the society level and the tools they use are broad and not very precise. We see it all the time in their decisions and how they restrict us as a population, not just during this pandemic. But the government isn't everything. We ultimately can decide what to do or not do and if we feel isolation is the the appropriate path, then that is what we should do.

You will be put under pressure from family and friends to see them, but if you don't quite feel things are right, listen to your gut feeling. Your gut feeling will keep you safe, or at least safer.

I think all of us would have thought all the close contacts of the infected person should have self quarantined until they knew the results of the testing. I'm thankful this doctor shared his story as otherwise I wouldn't have known what is really happening in terms of people self quarantining.

Kelvin Eldridge
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Victorian hotspots for coronavirus. Is the use of Local Government Areas too broad?

The Victorian government has announced a number of local government areas as coronavirus hotspots. By the number of people getting tested this is obviously alarming people. But the questions becomes, is local government area far too broad?

I live in Manningham and if you measure the distance from one end of Manningham to the other it is a very large 21 kilometres. When something happens in Wonga Park, does it really impact those in Bulleen? Yes it could, but it's unlikely.

The following article details the hotspots.


The hotspots are the local government areas of:

Hume - 36 kilometres
Brimbank - 19 kilometres
Darebin - 11 kilometres
Moreland - 11 kilometres
Casey - 35 kilometres
Cardinia - 52 kilometres

The longest distance across each local government area is shown above and the distances covered even for the smallest local government area is considerable. Local Government Area is really far too large an area to be useful for most people.

The government really needs to start providing information at the postcode or suburb level. All the government is currently doing is needlessly scaring people. Only with the right level of information can we take the information seriously. With information we can be informed and act appropriately.

Early on I found the locations of infections was starting to overwhelm me. For my own sake I started to record where public exposure locations were occurring. The government isn't particularly forthcoming with information, is slow at making information available to the general public, but by using information available from the government and the media, I was able to get better information. The real pity is all this information is readily available from the government but it's not being made available. 

The New South Wales government for example is making the data available available at the postcode level.

Victorian GPs are also asking for more refined data to keep themselves and their clients safe. 


It makes sense. If we know something is happening around we will be more vigilant. If we're given useless data that has no meaning to us we'll either panic, or we'll start ignoring the information thinking it isn't relevant. The government creates problems either way by not being transparent or forthcoming with information.

You can find the information I collate from the Health Department and the general media available at www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/. I hope you find it useful.

Kelvin Eldridge

Update: 25/05/2020
The Victorian government has has now released the list of suburbs.
Keilor Downs
Maidstone
Albanvale
Sunshine West
Hallam
Broadmeadows
Brunswick
Fawkner
Reservoir
Pakenham


 


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Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Hit FM, Stav, Abby and Matt talk to Assistant Commissioner Mike Keating on red light cameras also being speed cameras in Queensland.

I decided to check out the Hit FM interview with Assistant Commissioner Mike Keating on red light cameras in Queensland. The question that interested me was the response to the question, whether or not all red light cameras had been updated to include speed camera technology. The answers received were very informative.

Q: Did all red light cameras get changed to speed cameras?
A: Not at this stage.

"There's around 35 speed and red light cameras scattered throughout Queensland. There's sixty other systems we move between around 115 other sites.... and we're going to see an expansion of the speed and red light camera installations as new technology comes on board."

With regards to the flash which goes off some installations, "there have been some locations where we've had to actually put in an infrared light system because the light was going off that often, the inconvenience that was causing to  residents of that particular area...."

Abby also raised the question, "...are you allowed to go over like with all your wheels over when it's amber...". There was discussion of when the light goes off, the position of the wheels and the stop line.

I felt the answer wasn't particularly accurate and could mislead people. I understand the answer given is what needs to be given because it is far too complicated given the time the person has to explain. In another post I'll provide more details on how the red light cameras work based on what I've been able to find out so far.

The main point of the this blog is whether or not all red light cameras are now also speed cameras. The answer is only 35 red light cameras are also speed cameras. It was not made clear as to whether or not the 60 other cameras that are moved between 115 other sites are capable of being speed cameras, or if they're just red light cameras. That would lead me to think they are only red light cameras.

If it's mandatory in Queensland to have a speed camera warning sign was you approach a speed camera, if that sign doesn't exist for the camera location, it may be that the camera is only a red light camera.

It probably therefore best to simply assume every camera is a red light camera and a speed camera. If it isn't at the moment, there's a good chance it will be in the future.

Kelvin Eldridge
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Monday, June 22, 2020

Red light camera / speed camera at Oxford Street and Crown Street, Darlinghurst speed limit changed.

Recently I read a person was caught by one of the Oxford Street / Crown Street in Darlinghurst red light camera/speed camera.


The person believes they may have been caught by the camera for going at 50 km/h and the speed limit may have changed to 40 km/h.

Checking recent YouTube videos and Google Maps (Street View and Satellite View) still have the speed limit at 50 km/h. The speed limits according to the person's GPS device was still stated as 50 km/h.

According to the Transport for NSW site there's a notice on the 28th of May 2020, the speed limit in Oxford Street from Flinders Street to College Street will change to 40 km/h from 50 km/h and take effect in the next two weeks once the signs have changed.


Credit: Google Maps 2020


In the past I have read and heard of people getting booked when they aren't aware of a speed limit change. There's usually quite a high extra revenue generated until people become aware of the new speed limit restriction.

In the past, if I recall correctly, I've read for Victoria there's 14 days noticed before people are fined. Victoria is particularly bad a sign posting speed limits, whereas from a Victorian's point of view NSW is much better. In the case of Oxford street you'll see speed limits painted on the road, speed signs and then before speed cameras you'll see a warning sign with the current speed limit. Of course that doesn't mean you'll see the information if there's heavy traffic and buses or trucks blocking your view.

Kelvin Eldridge
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No known coronavirus infections as a result of the Black Lives Matter protests in Melbourne.

Like it or not, the Black Lives Matter protests in Victoria were a concern because of coronavirus and the potential to spread the disease.

However one good outcome from such a protest is the effect of such a mass gathering. For example the recent Queensland council elections which meant millions or Queenslander went out and voted resulted in no identifiable increase in coronavirus during the 14 days that followed.

With the Black Lives Matter protests is was unfortunately that immediately after the protests the reporting linked people who went to the protest with coronavirus and people who just read the headlines or heard them on TV, may have thought the people got coronavirus or spread the coronavirus at the protests.

The reality is after 14 days there's been no link to infections as a result of people attending the Black Lives Matter protests in Victoria. That's a good outcome as it shows there is very little infection hidden in the community that is not directly linked to an known infected person.


Kelvin Eldridge

NOTE: There's been three cases linked to the Black Lives Matter protests. The first two occurred too early to have been caught at the protest and the third nearly 12 days after the protest, likely too late to have results from the protest. The reporting does say these cases are linked to the protest and whilst that is true because the people did attend the protest, their attendance is the only link and not the actual infection. To me stating there's a link my lead people to think there's a link between the coronavirus infection and the protest.
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Why the Victoria Government has to resort to what looks like ridiculous coronavirus lockdown restrictions.

Personally when I see the government go into lockdown with coronavirus because of the recent increase of coronavirus infections it really annoys me. The government tends to use a very blunt approach  to doing things. 

For example there has been relatively small numbers of infections in Victoria's regional areas and yet the entire state has been locked down. Some areas have had little or no infections. It would make far more sense for regional Victoria to continue with their lives and the lockdown only be applied to the wider metropolitan Melbourne. I even suspect some cases associated with regional areas may have been travellers who never returned to the regional area whilst being infected since infections are recorded based on a person's normal residential address.

So when I see the recent outbreak I can't help feel the government isn't taking the best approach. They should in my opinion isolate the infected person and not let them isolate at home to infect the rest of their family and potentially extended family. Those who are in contact should then be isolated for 14 days. Testing of close contacts should be performed after 5 days as the median time for infected people to show symptoms is around 5 days. If any of these people are infected they should be isolated away from other people. The idea that infected people go back and infect their family to me is crazy and leads to outbreaks amongst family members and that is the problem Victoria is currently facing.

Now whilst I think the Victorian government isn't doing what is required, the following article shows that neither are Victorians doing what is required. Around 50% of people who are being tested for coronavirus at a shopping centre (Chadstone) either came from the centre or went into the centre before or after testing. This is completely against the advice of the health department and shows that as a group, half of us are happy to do the wrong thing and that is a truly sad indictment of us as a community. Had the percentage been much lower as we'd all expect I'd continue to be annoyed at the government's sledgehammer approach. However, the government knows how we behave as a group and I'm sure this would factor into their decisions. The government is only doing what it needs to do because we as a community aren't prepared to do what we should do. Thus the government takes excessive means when much simpler and more basic approaches could be used.


Another example is the recent large scale protests which shows people will not do what is needed at this time for their local community. Whilst personally I felt the probability of any or many infections arising out of the protests was low to none, due to the low rate of community transmission from unknown origins, it does show how people behave even when informed.

In terms of people entering or leaving the shopping centre before or after being tested, this is more about how we as a group behave. We don't do the right thing. In terms of infections, again the probability is low as with the very large number of tests performed (more than 660,000) there has been a very low number of positive results.

Ask yourself have you done at all times what is required, even as a very good citizen. Do you know people who at Easter got together when they shouldn't have. You'll then start to understand why the Victoria government has to do what it does. It's not what it should do, but it's what our behaviour we as a community do, that makes it so.

To me that is truly sad.

Kelvin Eldridge



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Thursday, June 11, 2020

Queensland red light camera locations and speed camera locations now added to Speed Camera Locations

The first stage of adding Queensland red light camera locations and speed camera locations has now been added to the Speed Camera Locations site. There's still quite a bit of work to be done and some data is proving more elusive for Queensland than for other states. Data such as the number and value of fines.

Over the coming weeks and months I'll continue to flush out the information for Queensland road users.

Kelvin Eldridge
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Financial support for student transport

I read the following article on how a mum in Queensland was able to get $433 for taking her own children to school. Now whilst this doesn't apply to myself or my family, I couldn't help feel it may be useful for some people we may know.


By using the links provided I found a similar scheme is available in Victoria. The site for Victoria includes a link to a map which helps you work out if the scheme applies to you. Basically you need to be outside the metropolitan area (as defined on the map), and the school is further than 4.8 kilometres. It doesn't matter if the school is private or non-private. Different schemes exist for different states and links are provided to each state.

Since I'd never heard of such a scheme and the mum who the article is about didn't know either, there's many people who may not know.

I help it helps someone.

Kelvin Eldridge
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What do Grosvenor Road, Lindfield in NSW and Batesford Road, Malvern East/Chadstone have in common?

Recently I was asked a question from a person who uses my website Speed Camera Locations.

The person entered Grosvenor Road, Lindfield from the Pacific Highway. The intersection is controlled by traffic lights. As you enter Grosvenor Road there's a school zone and speed signs about 34 metres to alert you of the 40 km/h speed limit during school times. The may also be a 40 km/h limit and school zone markings on the road.

Driving further down Grosvenor Road the first time you know the speed limit is when you see at around 362 metres from the intersection and End School Zone with the speed limit of 50 km/h. That's a very long distance and a long way before knowing what the speed limit of the street is.

From the other end of Grosvenor Road you enter via a roundabout at Lady Game Drive. As you head north along Lady Game Drive you approach the roundabout and continue straight through on Lady Game Drive or exit the second exit to Grosvenor Road. Both roads look very similar and both don't look like urban roads. In effect there's little reason for anyone to think Grosvenor Road, the second exit has a lower speed limit. There is no speed limit sign when coming from Lady Game Drive until you reach the school zone speed sign. There is no end school zone speed limit sign when driving west to east. This is most likely due to the short distance to the Pacific Highway.

The problem for this driver was they entered Grosvenor Road off the Pacific Highway and most likely thought the speed limit was 60 km/h. A mobile speed camera was located before they reached the End School Zone sign with the 50 km/h. There's a possibility the driver was booked depending on which side of the road the mobile speed camera was located.

It does seem a bit odd that Eaton Road, the road south of Grosvenor Road that also turns off the Pacific Highway, but is a much smaller road with no traffic lights is clearly marked on the road with both 50 km/h for the road's normal speed limit and 40 km/h for the school zone limit, yet Grosvenor Road has no such marking. Westbourne road the next street south is small and have no speed information, but the next road south, Bayswater Road, which is bigger, does have a 50 km/h area speed limit sign.

Given it's felt there's a need for a mobile speed camera, it stands to reason the speed limit signage should be improved to assist people to better know the correct speed limit.

Now I also mentioned what do Grosvenor Road in Lindfield and Batesford Road in Malvern East and Chadstone have in common, and to me it is that they are both poorly signed when it comes to speed limits.

If we used the logic that smaller urban roads have a default speed limit of 50 km/h, if you were to drive into Batesford Road from Waverley Road in Malvern East, or heading east in Batesford Road from Warrigal Road, there's no speed limit signs. The only sign is on the southern side of Batesford Road in Malvern East near the MacDonald's. The sign is a 60 km/h sign. Given Batesford Road crosses Warrigal Road and one of the highest revenue red light camera/speed camera locations in Victoria, you'd think the signage should be good in the area.

Whilst taking dashcam videos of red light cameras and speed cameras one problem I was often faced with was not knowing the speed of the road. So many areas around Melbourne are very poorly sign posted. When you come out of a side street onto a major road it can be some time until you see a speed limit sign. There's many spots around Melbourne where this can lead people to speed without realising and often those spots are also good spots for mobile speed cameras. Better signage would help everyone. Signs closer together means we don't have to drive blindly or resort to technology to let us know what the speed limit is.

Kelvin Eldridge


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Friday, June 05, 2020

Speed camera in Westconnex M4 East tunnel NSW

To help people review the red light camera locations and speed camera locations where they incurred an infringement, I created the www.SpeedCameraLocations.com.au site. One of the more difficult type of speed cameras to locate are those cameras that a located in tunnels. Often you can't see them because of the bright lights in the tunnel roofs and the dark background. I know I find it hard to see them.

One tunnel I still hadn't located until today was in the Westconnex M4 East tunnel. With information provided by others and a little research I was able to locate the approximate position and add the location of the speed camera to the Speed Camera Locations NSW map.

What helped a lot was a person posted the pictures of their infringement on OzBargain (https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/498958). By reviewing the pictures I was then able to provide an approximate location in Google Street View and also provide a video (from YouTube) of the location.

I'm thankful to those who share this information which enables me to provide better information on my www.SpeedCameraLocations.com.au site.

As a side note, the person who provided the images was fined for doing 72 km/h when the signs were showing 40 km/h. In the video I've provided via a link to on www.SpeedCameraLocations.com.au, has the speed showing 80 km/h. At the entrance to the tunnel there's a sign stating "Variable Speed Limit Enforced". I noticed in the image for the fine there's a truck after the left merging lane that may be doing maintenance and perhaps the reason the speed limit was reduced. I do wonder how much warning drivers had because this driver didn't notice they were zooming past other cars. The pictures show the speed signs before and after the car are set to 40 km/h.

Whilst the speed camera is located further back, the spot where the picture of the is taken is around door 34, between the two merge arrows and roughly near the yellow left lane ends sign.


Kelvin Eldridge
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Red light camera fine - Slow vehicle (street cleaner) in front.

I read the following on OzBargain where a person was fined going through a red light. In essence they felt they'd entered the intersection when the traffic light was green, but then had to wait for a slow moving street cleaner before proceeding through the intersection.


The person continued through the intersection 0.6 seconds after the light had turned red as they felt they were in the way of cross traffic.


There's a couple of things to keep in mind. Whilst the person felt they were in the intersection, when they moved they probably weren't in the intersection. The Mercedes is about 4.8m long, the rear of the car about 0.4m from the back of the car to the back of the rear wheel, thus about 4.4m in front of the stop line.

If you check the intersection using Google's satellite view you'll see the kerb of the cross road. If you imagine the line where the roads cross (this is the definition of the intersection) and measure the distance from the kerb back to the stop line, it would appear to be around 4m. That means if the picture was taken because the car started moving at 0.6 seconds and thus set off the camera, the car would have been 0.4 metres in the intersection.

The real problem is the person can't prove whether they just started moving or they were moving already. If they had a dashcam they may be able to prove they were stationary.

From what I've read many red light/speed cameras now take a video and if that was the case, the police have the evidence they need to show the car was moving or not.


In this case the person had Service NSW review the footage and confirmed he had broken the law. The person accepted they broke the law.

I reviewed my own style of driving and found what I do if a car in front of me is going slowly through an intersection, I'll wait behind the stop line until I know the person will clear the intersection. It is not my desire to block the intersection. Here's an example of where this happened to me. The difference however was the traffic was moving quite slowly after the intersection with a high chance of the cars stopping after the intersection which would mean I would then have blocked the intersection if I entered the intersection.


However I do wonder, if the person was following the slow moving vehicle in front and kept moving at the same speed as the slow moving vehicle, they would not have needed to stop and wouldn't have set the camera off. They would be closer to the street cleaner when the light went red. The intersection is not blocked as both vehicles in theory could continue. The vehicles are just travelling slowly. This is really what everyone does when they drive at normal speed through an intersection.

Kelvin Eldridge
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