Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Interactive self-assessment tool for coronavirus.

I was thinking of writing a tool to help guide people on what to do if they're concerned about having coronavirus. I then came across the Department of Health and Human Services interactive self-assessment tool and felt recommending their tool would be the best way to go.

You can find the interactive self-assessment tool at the following address.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-self-assessment

The government doesn't collect any information, although do keep in mind anything you enter into a form on the internet is often logged. Having said that I'm happy to use the self-assessment tool.

Give it a go if you're concerned about coronavirus. Even if you don't think you have coronavirus experiment with the tool so if you need it, you'll know what to do.

Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Under Victoria's stage 4 restrictions can people leave their home to pick up new pet.

One of the problems I've seen in the past with stage 3 restrictions was whether or not a person could pick up their new dog that was outside of Melbourne.

Keep in mind that getting a new dog isn't as simple as it once was, turning up to the local pet shop. People now wait in line for months, sometimes years until a pup of the breed they want is born. Then they have to wait until the dog is older enough to leave with them. This isn't a matter of weeks, but often months.

In the earlier case the person was able to pick up their dog outside of metropolitan Melbourne.

Find the information you need as a pet owner is not easy so when I saw an article from Agriculte Victoria I thought it might interest others.

https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/farm-management/emergency-management/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-faqs-for-animal-carers?_cldee=YnByZW1haml0aEB5YWhvby5jb20%3D&recipientid=contact-96e6ccad8768e911a820000d3ad0a55e-a78da420cb054a0a91b529504c4ddd01&esid=8b526490-34e0-ea11-a833-000d3ad1b063

Now how anyone would otherwise know or try to look for such an article I don't know. A link really should be provided from the Victoria government's main site for COVID-19. I've noticed different government departments doing things and that information is not linked back in any way. Another example was the recent need to have permits to go to work.

Even with this article if you're picking up a dog from outside of metropolitan Melbourne it's not specifically stated. The following are the important statements.

Yes. You can leave your home to collect a pet you purchased prior to the date this clarification was provided by government on 13 August  2020. 

and

You may travel more than 5km from your home to collect a pet, but the travel cannot be unreasonable. As with other necessary goods, it must be the closest practical location.

As always things are left open to interpretation. A dog is not like a necessary good and when you buy a dog it's at a specific location. A dog isn't like toilet paper, which can be bought at any supermarket (subject to supplies). You enter into an agreement to purchase a dog from a specific breeder and it is where they are located. Of course the other option is to ask the breeder to deliver the dog since they are providing an allowed service, but see how that goes!

The best part though is once you get past all the crap, owning and loving your new pet will be worth all the effort.

Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/


Sunday, August 23, 2020

Estimate of turnaround times for coronavirus test results in Victoria.

I was looking at the data I've accumulated on coronavirus cases in Victoria and decided to crosscheck two series of data. The cases each day in Victoria and the number of tests taken each day in Victoria. As it turns out, there was a very interesting pattern that reveals some useful information.

The following is a graph of the daily cases in Victoria.


The following is a graph of the number of daily tests in Victoria. Prior to the 3rd of August the number of tests were estimates, whereas since the 3rd it appears these numbers are been automated and are now far more accurate.


What was interesting was a very obvious double spike and large dip in the number of tests on the 9th, 10th and 11th of August. Due to the significant number of daily tests (that were nearly double the usual number of tests), interestingly the results could be seen three days later in the number of reported cases.

We can now quite easily see the relationship between when the tests were done and when the test results were known. Keep in mind the data is reported the next day.

We can see it takes roughly three days from when tests are done to when the number of cases is reported to the government. Although it is not known if the test result is reported to the person at the same time, or whether that might take another day or two.

Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map

NOTE: If you click on the graphs you'll be able to see the detail better.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria.

 I thought it would be interesting to create a map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria. The reason is many aged care facilities have had large outbreaks, so areas may look like there's a large number of cases, but actually the cases are limited and contained to a single location, or that's what I thought.

https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/outbreaks/

As it turns out things are much more complicated. In some areas such as Melton there's been a large number of cases, but no large outbreak, although do keep in mind that data I've gathered isn't complete. Cranbourne is similar.

In Kilsyth there's been a single large outbreak at the Kirkbrea aged care of 132, but according to postcode data as of today, there's only been 79 cases. That indicates a large number of workers from outside the area have been infected with the coronavirus.

In the Craigieburn postcode area there's been 833 cases. There's also been an outbreak at Arcare Craigieburn of 94 and Fresh Plus of 7. This would indicate a large number of residents contracting coronavirus.

It really is interesting to look at the data and see things you wouldn't otherwise see. To put to rest assumptions you've made that are often wrong,

I've often said our world is crazy because often we can only get a job quite a distance from where we live, when there's probably a suitable job somewhere close to us. Some of the coronavirus postcode figures such as Melton, Kilsyth and Craigieburn show just how large the number of people are who are travelling to work out of their areas. It's also one of the problems with the current lockdown strategy. Those who are working are the ones who are more than likely transmitting the virus and aren't locked down, yet those who aren't working and not seeing anyone are locked down. Not an easy issue to deal with.

Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Victoria - Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) - Can I drive to a place to exercise.

 It can be quite difficult to find the actual legal documents when it comes to information from the Victorian government. One particularly important document is the Stay at Home Directions.

The following is the latest Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) which covers beginning at 11:59:00pm on 16 August 2020 and ending at 11:59:00pm on 13 September 2020.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stay-home-directions-restricted-areas-no-12-doc

Whilst there's a lot of information written in the press, the problem is the more they write the more they introduce ambiguities. In fact, reading the Stay at Home Directions can be quite difficult, thus making sure you're doing the right thing can be hard. The real problem is whilst you may feel you're doing the right thing, if a police officer doesn't think you are, they can fine you. Yes you can take it to court, but then you risk an even greater fine and costs. 

The reason for this post is to look at what is said about driving to exercise.

On page 4 in section 1AE the following is stated.

(1AE) Where a person leaves the premises under subclause (1)(d) (exercise), the person must not:

(a) leave their premises for a period longer than 1 hour; or

(b) use a vehicle, except where it is not reasonably practicable for the person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle. 

Note: if a person needs to access an area within 5km of their premises for exercise, but can only do so due to mobility (such as a parent with a small child or a person with disability) or safety reasons (such as needing to exercise in an area with greater passive surveillance) by using a vehicle, then it would not be reasonably practicable for that person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle. 

There are a number of reasons there can be considerable confusion around exercise.

1. First there's the word travel and we are allowed to travel up to 5km.

When we travel we think of using a form of transport. We travel overseas. Can't do that easily without a plane. I don't travel to the local park, I walk. When I go to the local shops I travel by car.

So using the word travel, or you cannot travel more than 5km, implies usage of some form of vehicle. Travel is thus a bad word to use in this situation and causes considerable confusion.

You'll notice in the legislation in the section shown above, the word travel is not used. The word travel however is used quite considerably on the government's coronavirus website when referring to exercise.

2. There's the distance. You're allowed to travel up to 5km from your home to exercise. That means a 10km round trip. Try doing that in the one hour that's allowed without using a vehicle. It simply doesn't make sense. The implication is the use of a vehicle would be allowed if you didn't read the legislation.

3. You can exercise with one other person outside of your household.

Initially this didn't make sense to me, but then someone suggested, as a women, they wouldn't feel comfortable exercising alone, so it makes sense for safety and could equally apply to males (unless of course you're applying one set of beliefs about women and another for men).

Now given that you can use your car to travel to exercise if there's a question of safety, and exercising alone could be a safety issue, then travelling by car in theory, could be allowed if exercising with another person.

The real problem is the legislation often appears to be written to capture more people rather than less. By leaving things unclear the law can be applied either way and it may not be in your favour. Thus instead of doing what we're allowed, or should be allowed to do, we don't do something because of fear.

The real question I have now is why are we allowed to exercise with another person outside of our household. If we can exercise with them, why then can't we visit them (assuming no other people involved).

That's where the real problem is. The government has allowed people to exercise with another person as an exception, but that inconsistency then makes us start to think, things don't make sense, and if the rules don't make sense, people start to ignore the rules. That's when we are all in trouble because the virus spreads.

Keep in mind people ARE getting fined for driving to a spot and then exercising, and police have issued a warning.


You can argue it's allowed by the legislation as you felt it was safer to drive to a place with more passive security rather than walking along secluded streets, but see how far that goes with the police officer.

This is another one of those crazy situations the government has created.

The real problem is us as people. Want can find a way for us to exercise that doesn't require us to drive or meet up with other people. The problem is when we want to do something we justify it. I want to walk at a particular park because it's a nicer park. There's a safety risk because between where I am and the park there's magpies that attack. It's safer to drive, so I do. Of course I could just walk along the footpath near where I live and still get the same amount of exercise.

We all have choices. I honestly don't know half the time what the heck the government is trying to get me to do or not do. To me they're doing a terrible job and the aged care cases of coronavirus is a stark reminder of how badly they're doing. However, all of that doesn't matter. My health is my concern and doing the best for my health is about doing the best I can. It has little to do with the government. That is the choice we all have.

It really is safer when it comes to coronavirus not to exercise with a friend. You really don't know who else they are seeing. Popular parks really are crowded and the number of people you'll pass is a risk. Is it really worth it?

Kelvin Eldridge

Update: 19/08/2020
A couple of hours after writing this post I noticed in the media others were suggesting the rule that you couldn't drive to where you wanted to exercise was being questioned. Subsequently the article below appeared. It appears the rule that you can't drive to exercise is being removed effective immediately, with the changes going through on Friday. A small but sensible adjustment.






Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Change in active coronavirus cases in Victoria by Postcode.

 The Victoria government has released two lots of data for coronavirus cases in Victoria. One for the 31st of July and the second for the 6th of August. I've created a map which shows both of these sets of data.

I thought I’d let you know I added the change in active cases in the postcode map.

https://www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/

However one thing I really wanted to know was the new number of cases in each postcode. Unfortunately the Victorian government choose not to release that data. They only released the number of active cases in the second lot of data on the 6th of August.

All we can see is the change in active cases. Unfortunately that means we can't always tell if there's new cases for an area because new cases may be offset by active cases no longer being active (people are now negative for coronavirus). Having said that some data is better than no data.

What I personally am interested in is the number of cases and change of cases in my own area and the areas around me. The option to show the 20 Nearest postcode gives me that information on the map, plus also lists the information below the map making it easier to quickly see what change has occurred. You can select the 20 Nearest option in the menu or use the following link.

https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/mobile/

Remember you on a desktop or notebook computer you can simply hover your mouse over a marker to see further details. On a mobile device you need to click on a marker to see further details (this can also be done on a notebook or desktop computer).

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Regional areas Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton to watch for coronavirus.

 When Victoria went into tighter restrictions for Metropolitan Melbourne the one area this didn't make sense for was Geelong. There probably wasn't enough cases to warrant Geelong also going into tighter restrictions, but the problem was the large number of cases in the western Melbourne area meant the potential exposure appeared to be quite high. Surely there's many people in the west who also work in Geelong!

Now a few weeks later we can see the Victorian regional areas where the numbers are increasing. If you look at the map I've created and zoom out, you'll see a couple of regional areas are having problems with coronavirus.

The areas of concern should be: Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton.

All of these regional areas appear to be experiencing a considerable number of coronavirus cases and perhaps stage 4 restrictions should be considered for those regions for a short period of time.

It did appear that Colac themselves went into tighter restrictions and it is good to see the local areas taking acting and not waiting for the Victorian government.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Monday, August 10, 2020

The reality of what's happening in Victoria with coronavirus compared with what the media lets us know.

Thanks goodness there's people such as doctors out there sharing what's really happening to them. The press, the government, makes everything look like things are working well, when the reality is far different.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/im-just-tired-doctor-hits-out/news-story/8ebc09a6ab3d8ac90f16cc6c5f85edcb

Thank you for those who speak out and let us know what is really happening.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Maps.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/ 

Sunday, August 09, 2020

Victoria public exposure locations - Nearest 20 within last 30 days.

 The coronavirus Victoria map I produce has two options. A full map of the known public locations and a map showing the nearest 20 public exposure locations near your current location, that have occurred over the last 30 days.

Unfortunately due to a programming error on my part the nearest 20 map did not show all the 20 locations. This has now been fixed. Sorry for any inconvenience.

There are now three maps I produce that will hopefully help people in these difficult times.

The map showing all public exposure locations I've identified from the government's and media information. There are two options.

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/mobile/

A map of coronavirus  locations by postcode for the person's residential address.

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/

A map which shows a 5km radius around your location which can be shared with others. Knowing the 5km radius around you enables you to comply with the stage 4 restrictions. By sharing the map with someone else you can work out where your areas overlap and where you can meet to exercise.

www.5kmRadius.com.au

I hope you find the maps useful.

Kelvin Eldridge


Wednesday, August 05, 2020

Victoria coronavirus Permitted Worker Permit scheme template

The Victorian government is now introducing the need for Victorians to carry with them a permit to travel to and from work. The scheme is known as the Permitted Worker Scheme.

You need to carry the completed document with you to and from work and should carry photo identification.

The Permitted Worker Scheme template is available from the following site as a Microsoft Word document.


Kelvin Eldridge

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

5km radius from your home/current location. Part of the new Victorian coronavirus stage 4 restrictions.

Now that Victoria has introduced stage 4 restrictions for coronavirus, one of those restrictions is you can only travel up to 5km, except for the reasons stated. So how far is 5 kilometres.

To make things easier, today I created the 5km Radius web app. Open your mobile phone and go to www.5kmRadius.com.au and you'll see a 5km circle around your current area.

Want to exercise with someone not in your family, remember the 5km restriction applies to each of you. Using the 5km Radius web app you can send each other your locations and then see where your two 5km regions overlap. That's where you can meet to exercise.

I hope this web app helps people in these unusual times.

Kelvin Eldridge

Sunday, August 02, 2020

Victorian map of coronavirus cases by postcode area.

I've been suggesting for quite a while the Victorian government should be releasing coronavirus cases down to the postcode area. Recently the Victorian government release the postcode data as at the 31st of July 2020.

The data only appears to have been released to the media and at this stage, does not appear to be available on a regular basis, which to me is a pity. Once you see the data at the postcode level you can get an insight into the things that may be happening in different areas. Data on the Local Government Area is far too broad.

The government appears to be concerned as to how people will use the data and I understand their concern. You can use any tool for good, but often that same tool can be used for malicious reasons. For me that data enables me to see the reality of what is happening around me, to better plan my activities.

One thing we do need to keep in mind though is the data is based on the residential location when the case was notified. Not where the case occurred and may not be where the case resides.

As an example in Doncaster East there's currently 21 active cases, yet from media reports and the information released daily from the Department of Health and Human Services, there appears to be no reported cases in the area. It's hard to reconcile what is going on in the area and this will apply to many areas. In other words the amount of data being provided is still not sufficient.

Hopefully by reviewing the information that appears in the media and the more recent postcode data people can get a feeling for what is happening in their area and hopefully in someway that helps. The following are the maps I currently produce.

A map showing the location of reported cases including a link to the news article or government site.

A map showing coronavirus cases in Victoria by postcode at at the 31st of July 2020.

I hope you find the information useful.

Kelvin Eldridge