Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Interactive self-assessment tool for coronavirus.

I was thinking of writing a tool to help guide people on what to do if they're concerned about having coronavirus. I then came across the Department of Health and Human Services interactive self-assessment tool and felt recommending their tool would be the best way to go.

You can find the interactive self-assessment tool at the following address.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-self-assessment

The government doesn't collect any information, although do keep in mind anything you enter into a form on the internet is often logged. Having said that I'm happy to use the self-assessment tool.

Give it a go if you're concerned about coronavirus. Even if you don't think you have coronavirus experiment with the tool so if you need it, you'll know what to do.

Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Under Victoria's stage 4 restrictions can people leave their home to pick up new pet.

One of the problems I've seen in the past with stage 3 restrictions was whether or not a person could pick up their new dog that was outside of Melbourne.

Keep in mind that getting a new dog isn't as simple as it once was, turning up to the local pet shop. People now wait in line for months, sometimes years until a pup of the breed they want is born. Then they have to wait until the dog is older enough to leave with them. This isn't a matter of weeks, but often months.

In the earlier case the person was able to pick up their dog outside of metropolitan Melbourne.

Find the information you need as a pet owner is not easy so when I saw an article from Agriculte Victoria I thought it might interest others.

https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/farm-management/emergency-management/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-faqs-for-animal-carers?_cldee=YnByZW1haml0aEB5YWhvby5jb20%3D&recipientid=contact-96e6ccad8768e911a820000d3ad0a55e-a78da420cb054a0a91b529504c4ddd01&esid=8b526490-34e0-ea11-a833-000d3ad1b063

Now how anyone would otherwise know or try to look for such an article I don't know. A link really should be provided from the Victoria government's main site for COVID-19. I've noticed different government departments doing things and that information is not linked back in any way. Another example was the recent need to have permits to go to work.

Even with this article if you're picking up a dog from outside of metropolitan Melbourne it's not specifically stated. The following are the important statements.

Yes. You can leave your home to collect a pet you purchased prior to the date this clarification was provided by government on 13 August  2020. 

and

You may travel more than 5km from your home to collect a pet, but the travel cannot be unreasonable. As with other necessary goods, it must be the closest practical location.

As always things are left open to interpretation. A dog is not like a necessary good and when you buy a dog it's at a specific location. A dog isn't like toilet paper, which can be bought at any supermarket (subject to supplies). You enter into an agreement to purchase a dog from a specific breeder and it is where they are located. Of course the other option is to ask the breeder to deliver the dog since they are providing an allowed service, but see how that goes!

The best part though is once you get past all the crap, owning and loving your new pet will be worth all the effort.

Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/


Sunday, August 23, 2020

Estimate of turnaround times for coronavirus test results in Victoria.

I was looking at the data I've accumulated on coronavirus cases in Victoria and decided to crosscheck two series of data. The cases each day in Victoria and the number of tests taken each day in Victoria. As it turns out, there was a very interesting pattern that reveals some useful information.

The following is a graph of the daily cases in Victoria.


The following is a graph of the number of daily tests in Victoria. Prior to the 3rd of August the number of tests were estimates, whereas since the 3rd it appears these numbers are been automated and are now far more accurate.


What was interesting was a very obvious double spike and large dip in the number of tests on the 9th, 10th and 11th of August. Due to the significant number of daily tests (that were nearly double the usual number of tests), interestingly the results could be seen three days later in the number of reported cases.

We can now quite easily see the relationship between when the tests were done and when the test results were known. Keep in mind the data is reported the next day.

We can see it takes roughly three days from when tests are done to when the number of cases is reported to the government. Although it is not known if the test result is reported to the person at the same time, or whether that might take another day or two.

Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map

NOTE: If you click on the graphs you'll be able to see the detail better.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria.

 I thought it would be interesting to create a map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria. The reason is many aged care facilities have had large outbreaks, so areas may look like there's a large number of cases, but actually the cases are limited and contained to a single location, or that's what I thought.

https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/outbreaks/

As it turns out things are much more complicated. In some areas such as Melton there's been a large number of cases, but no large outbreak, although do keep in mind that data I've gathered isn't complete. Cranbourne is similar.

In Kilsyth there's been a single large outbreak at the Kirkbrea aged care of 132, but according to postcode data as of today, there's only been 79 cases. That indicates a large number of workers from outside the area have been infected with the coronavirus.

In the Craigieburn postcode area there's been 833 cases. There's also been an outbreak at Arcare Craigieburn of 94 and Fresh Plus of 7. This would indicate a large number of residents contracting coronavirus.

It really is interesting to look at the data and see things you wouldn't otherwise see. To put to rest assumptions you've made that are often wrong,

I've often said our world is crazy because often we can only get a job quite a distance from where we live, when there's probably a suitable job somewhere close to us. Some of the coronavirus postcode figures such as Melton, Kilsyth and Craigieburn show just how large the number of people are who are travelling to work out of their areas. It's also one of the problems with the current lockdown strategy. Those who are working are the ones who are more than likely transmitting the virus and aren't locked down, yet those who aren't working and not seeing anyone are locked down. Not an easy issue to deal with.

Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Victoria - Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) - Can I drive to a place to exercise.

 It can be quite difficult to find the actual legal documents when it comes to information from the Victorian government. One particularly important document is the Stay at Home Directions.

The following is the latest Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) which covers beginning at 11:59:00pm on 16 August 2020 and ending at 11:59:00pm on 13 September 2020.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stay-home-directions-restricted-areas-no-12-doc

Whilst there's a lot of information written in the press, the problem is the more they write the more they introduce ambiguities. In fact, reading the Stay at Home Directions can be quite difficult, thus making sure you're doing the right thing can be hard. The real problem is whilst you may feel you're doing the right thing, if a police officer doesn't think you are, they can fine you. Yes you can take it to court, but then you risk an even greater fine and costs. 

The reason for this post is to look at what is said about driving to exercise.

On page 4 in section 1AE the following is stated.

(1AE) Where a person leaves the premises under subclause (1)(d) (exercise), the person must not:

(a) leave their premises for a period longer than 1 hour; or

(b) use a vehicle, except where it is not reasonably practicable for the person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle. 

Note: if a person needs to access an area within 5km of their premises for exercise, but can only do so due to mobility (such as a parent with a small child or a person with disability) or safety reasons (such as needing to exercise in an area with greater passive surveillance) by using a vehicle, then it would not be reasonably practicable for that person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle. 

There are a number of reasons there can be considerable confusion around exercise.

1. First there's the word travel and we are allowed to travel up to 5km.

When we travel we think of using a form of transport. We travel overseas. Can't do that easily without a plane. I don't travel to the local park, I walk. When I go to the local shops I travel by car.

So using the word travel, or you cannot travel more than 5km, implies usage of some form of vehicle. Travel is thus a bad word to use in this situation and causes considerable confusion.

You'll notice in the legislation in the section shown above, the word travel is not used. The word travel however is used quite considerably on the government's coronavirus website when referring to exercise.

2. There's the distance. You're allowed to travel up to 5km from your home to exercise. That means a 10km round trip. Try doing that in the one hour that's allowed without using a vehicle. It simply doesn't make sense. The implication is the use of a vehicle would be allowed if you didn't read the legislation.

3. You can exercise with one other person outside of your household.

Initially this didn't make sense to me, but then someone suggested, as a women, they wouldn't feel comfortable exercising alone, so it makes sense for safety and could equally apply to males (unless of course you're applying one set of beliefs about women and another for men).

Now given that you can use your car to travel to exercise if there's a question of safety, and exercising alone could be a safety issue, then travelling by car in theory, could be allowed if exercising with another person.

The real problem is the legislation often appears to be written to capture more people rather than less. By leaving things unclear the law can be applied either way and it may not be in your favour. Thus instead of doing what we're allowed, or should be allowed to do, we don't do something because of fear.

The real question I have now is why are we allowed to exercise with another person outside of our household. If we can exercise with them, why then can't we visit them (assuming no other people involved).

That's where the real problem is. The government has allowed people to exercise with another person as an exception, but that inconsistency then makes us start to think, things don't make sense, and if the rules don't make sense, people start to ignore the rules. That's when we are all in trouble because the virus spreads.

Keep in mind people ARE getting fined for driving to a spot and then exercising, and police have issued a warning.


You can argue it's allowed by the legislation as you felt it was safer to drive to a place with more passive security rather than walking along secluded streets, but see how far that goes with the police officer.

This is another one of those crazy situations the government has created.

The real problem is us as people. Want can find a way for us to exercise that doesn't require us to drive or meet up with other people. The problem is when we want to do something we justify it. I want to walk at a particular park because it's a nicer park. There's a safety risk because between where I am and the park there's magpies that attack. It's safer to drive, so I do. Of course I could just walk along the footpath near where I live and still get the same amount of exercise.

We all have choices. I honestly don't know half the time what the heck the government is trying to get me to do or not do. To me they're doing a terrible job and the aged care cases of coronavirus is a stark reminder of how badly they're doing. However, all of that doesn't matter. My health is my concern and doing the best for my health is about doing the best I can. It has little to do with the government. That is the choice we all have.

It really is safer when it comes to coronavirus not to exercise with a friend. You really don't know who else they are seeing. Popular parks really are crowded and the number of people you'll pass is a risk. Is it really worth it?

Kelvin Eldridge

Update: 19/08/2020
A couple of hours after writing this post I noticed in the media others were suggesting the rule that you couldn't drive to where you wanted to exercise was being questioned. Subsequently the article below appeared. It appears the rule that you can't drive to exercise is being removed effective immediately, with the changes going through on Friday. A small but sensible adjustment.






Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Change in active coronavirus cases in Victoria by Postcode.

 The Victoria government has released two lots of data for coronavirus cases in Victoria. One for the 31st of July and the second for the 6th of August. I've created a map which shows both of these sets of data.

I thought I’d let you know I added the change in active cases in the postcode map.

https://www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/

However one thing I really wanted to know was the new number of cases in each postcode. Unfortunately the Victorian government choose not to release that data. They only released the number of active cases in the second lot of data on the 6th of August.

All we can see is the change in active cases. Unfortunately that means we can't always tell if there's new cases for an area because new cases may be offset by active cases no longer being active (people are now negative for coronavirus). Having said that some data is better than no data.

What I personally am interested in is the number of cases and change of cases in my own area and the areas around me. The option to show the 20 Nearest postcode gives me that information on the map, plus also lists the information below the map making it easier to quickly see what change has occurred. You can select the 20 Nearest option in the menu or use the following link.

https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/mobile/

Remember you on a desktop or notebook computer you can simply hover your mouse over a marker to see further details. On a mobile device you need to click on a marker to see further details (this can also be done on a notebook or desktop computer).

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Regional areas Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton to watch for coronavirus.

 When Victoria went into tighter restrictions for Metropolitan Melbourne the one area this didn't make sense for was Geelong. There probably wasn't enough cases to warrant Geelong also going into tighter restrictions, but the problem was the large number of cases in the western Melbourne area meant the potential exposure appeared to be quite high. Surely there's many people in the west who also work in Geelong!

Now a few weeks later we can see the Victorian regional areas where the numbers are increasing. If you look at the map I've created and zoom out, you'll see a couple of regional areas are having problems with coronavirus.

The areas of concern should be: Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton.

All of these regional areas appear to be experiencing a considerable number of coronavirus cases and perhaps stage 4 restrictions should be considered for those regions for a short period of time.

It did appear that Colac themselves went into tighter restrictions and it is good to see the local areas taking acting and not waiting for the Victorian government.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Monday, August 10, 2020

The reality of what's happening in Victoria with coronavirus compared with what the media lets us know.

Thanks goodness there's people such as doctors out there sharing what's really happening to them. The press, the government, makes everything look like things are working well, when the reality is far different.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/im-just-tired-doctor-hits-out/news-story/8ebc09a6ab3d8ac90f16cc6c5f85edcb

Thank you for those who speak out and let us know what is really happening.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Maps.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/ 

Sunday, August 09, 2020

Victoria public exposure locations - Nearest 20 within last 30 days.

 The coronavirus Victoria map I produce has two options. A full map of the known public locations and a map showing the nearest 20 public exposure locations near your current location, that have occurred over the last 30 days.

Unfortunately due to a programming error on my part the nearest 20 map did not show all the 20 locations. This has now been fixed. Sorry for any inconvenience.

There are now three maps I produce that will hopefully help people in these difficult times.

The map showing all public exposure locations I've identified from the government's and media information. There are two options.

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/mobile/

A map of coronavirus  locations by postcode for the person's residential address.

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoriapostcode/

A map which shows a 5km radius around your location which can be shared with others. Knowing the 5km radius around you enables you to comply with the stage 4 restrictions. By sharing the map with someone else you can work out where your areas overlap and where you can meet to exercise.

www.5kmRadius.com.au

I hope you find the maps useful.

Kelvin Eldridge


Wednesday, August 05, 2020

Victoria coronavirus Permitted Worker Permit scheme template

The Victorian government is now introducing the need for Victorians to carry with them a permit to travel to and from work. The scheme is known as the Permitted Worker Scheme.

You need to carry the completed document with you to and from work and should carry photo identification.

The Permitted Worker Scheme template is available from the following site as a Microsoft Word document.


Kelvin Eldridge

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

5km radius from your home/current location. Part of the new Victorian coronavirus stage 4 restrictions.

Now that Victoria has introduced stage 4 restrictions for coronavirus, one of those restrictions is you can only travel up to 5km, except for the reasons stated. So how far is 5 kilometres.

To make things easier, today I created the 5km Radius web app. Open your mobile phone and go to www.5kmRadius.com.au and you'll see a 5km circle around your current area.

Want to exercise with someone not in your family, remember the 5km restriction applies to each of you. Using the 5km Radius web app you can send each other your locations and then see where your two 5km regions overlap. That's where you can meet to exercise.

I hope this web app helps people in these unusual times.

Kelvin Eldridge

Sunday, August 02, 2020

Victorian map of coronavirus cases by postcode area.

I've been suggesting for quite a while the Victorian government should be releasing coronavirus cases down to the postcode area. Recently the Victorian government release the postcode data as at the 31st of July 2020.

The data only appears to have been released to the media and at this stage, does not appear to be available on a regular basis, which to me is a pity. Once you see the data at the postcode level you can get an insight into the things that may be happening in different areas. Data on the Local Government Area is far too broad.

The government appears to be concerned as to how people will use the data and I understand their concern. You can use any tool for good, but often that same tool can be used for malicious reasons. For me that data enables me to see the reality of what is happening around me, to better plan my activities.

One thing we do need to keep in mind though is the data is based on the residential location when the case was notified. Not where the case occurred and may not be where the case resides.

As an example in Doncaster East there's currently 21 active cases, yet from media reports and the information released daily from the Department of Health and Human Services, there appears to be no reported cases in the area. It's hard to reconcile what is going on in the area and this will apply to many areas. In other words the amount of data being provided is still not sufficient.

Hopefully by reviewing the information that appears in the media and the more recent postcode data people can get a feeling for what is happening in their area and hopefully in someway that helps. The following are the maps I currently produce.

A map showing the location of reported cases including a link to the news article or government site.

A map showing coronavirus cases in Victoria by postcode at at the 31st of July 2020.

I hope you find the information useful.

Kelvin Eldridge

Monday, July 27, 2020

Face mask or face shield.

It's actually quite hard to read information and know what is right and wrong. The government said for a long time we didn't need to wear masks and now in Victoria it's mandatory. So which is it, don't need them, or do need them.

First from what I've read N95 or equivalent masks can reduce up to 95% coronavirus particles getting into your nose or mouth. If you decide on a scarf homemade mask your protection could be reduce by half or more. The government is suggesting we can use any covering as a mask and that is acceptable. But is it the best approach for you.

The way I work is I look at increasing the probability of not getting the coronavirus infection. Each action you take could reduce or increase your chances of an infection. It's a matter of trying to find real information from scientific research to help you make the best decisions for yourself. There's still no guarantee you'll get infected, but hopefully you'll reduce your chances.

Currently my line of thought is if possible get an N95 or equivalent face mask from Bunnings or similar.

Now when it comes to a face shield those gaps around the face shield are a concern to me. Whilst people say coronavirus droplets are affected by gravity, I'd think very small aerosol droplets can easily be taken with winds and drafts. If an updraft can lift a glider then I'm sure it would have no problem with an aerosol sized droplet.

I won't however rule out face shields because  whilst my guess is they won't offer as much protection, it does act as a barrier. What's the research. I've not read any at this point that gives me the information to make a decision.

However there's one thing I haven't been doing and that is protecting my eyes as a source of entry for the virus. I'm no different to anyone else. I take time to do what I should and I really think it is time to start wearing some protective glasses.

Really I don't go out much now except for groceries and occasional shopping. At home there's very little exposure. Outside where there's many people such as when shopping, that's an exposure I need to take seriously.

With the eyes I recently read the following article. The one piece of information I thought was useful is it gave a figure of 1-3% risk of infection via the eyes. In other words your eyes are already more protected than your mouth and nose if wearing an N95 mask. That is the risk is low.


The following is, or soon will be my list of ways to protect myself. Do keep in mind I don't go out to work with others and you may not be in such a fortunate position.

Stay at home where possible.
If seeing anyone (for purposes of care) ask if they've seen anyone else, what activities and evaluate the risk.
Wash hands appropriately
Sanitise hands appropriately
Wear a mask when shopping or out in public.
Wear protective glasses when shopping or out in public - on my to do list
I don't currently use public transport
I don't currently visit clients (all work is remote)

One additional thing we've done is to use online ordering for our weekly groceries. As there's items I often need to get I use pick and collect, but before collecting I get my other items. I have to admit it is harder though to be organised.

One area of concern I have with my behaviour is the purchase of takeaway. In round one of stay at home I really didn't have takeaway. This time I have a bit more, but we cook more at home. I do however feel this is a point of exposure and will continue to ponder over this.

For my needs I feel a face mask plus protective glasses will give me better protection than a face shield.

Kelvin Eldridge

Update: 10 August 2020
I've been a bit concerned that people feel all face masks are the same. My gut feeling is they aren't so I decided to look for some research. Turns out some forms of face covering makes things worse. E.g. bandanas.
Also keep in mind face masks with valves/vents should be avoided. At best they could increase your risk, at worst they increase the risk to others.

Al-Taqwa coronvirus outbreak

As you may or may not know, I use my Mapz site (www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/) to detail public exposure locations in Victoria. One public exposure site that appeared out of nowhere was the Al-Taqwa College in Truganina.

The first time anything was reported from the government DHHS site or the media was on the 29th of June on the HeraldSun site and later in the day from the DHHS site. The next day two more cases were reported on the DHHS site. The next day another five. The next day on the 2nd of July one more cases. Then on the 11th of July 134 cases. Nothing was reported in the media that I found at the time. This was a staggering jump that simply didn't appear to get reported.

Now if I read the following article correctly, the doctor tested a student for coronavirus on the 25th of June. The test result came back negative. It appears at this time there was a suspected cluster the doctor had no idea about. No one in the community was kept informed. No one could take precautions.


The real problem with the Daniel Andrews government and approach is lack of transparency with information. The lack of timely information that is not being passed on.

I am amazed at how long information is taking to get out to the general public. The cases of coronavirus can and does grow exponentially. A delay of a few days is just not good enough.

A government that holds the information close to it's chest is not helping us at all.

If you hear of  one case of coronavirus you should assume there's more. You should immediately take action. Do what you can to protect yourself, your family, friends and the rest of the community.

Remember, the government is a slow moving bureaucracy. It uses broad reaching and blunt tools to achieve what it needs to achieve. You however can move far more quickly and respond almost instantly. Don't look to the government to solve this problem, look to yourself.

Kelvin Eldridge

PS. I should add at last count, there were 183 cases linked to Al-Taqwa. It's hard to believe early action and sharing of information couldn't have avoided at least some or many of these cases.


Wednesday, July 22, 2020

The message from Dan Andrews and the Victorian government about testing and isolation is poorly delivered to the community.

Today I read that 90% of people who have symptoms of coronavirus and get tested, didn't isolate between getting symptoms. In addition 53% of people didn't isolate after getting tested and before getting their results back.

Honestly, when I read this I am not surprised at all. I feel the message that Dan Andrews is giving to Victorians is confusing and it needs to be simplified, more direct. It's not people's fault if the message is not clear.


The government has said get tested. We're testing the community. Thanks for your help. There's nothing about isolating after the test. The government has and is failing in it's messages to the public.

Ultimately, whilst the government may fail, it is up to each of us to take full responsibility for our own actions. We know from media reports of people getting tested at Chadstone that half of the people who got tested either went into Chadstone Shopping Centre after being tested, or came out of Chadstone Shopping Centre to get tested. For goodness sake, who came up with the idea of testing people at shopping centres.

The message really is quite simple.
  • If you're sick then immediately self isolate to protect your family, friends and work colleagues.
  • Get tested as soon as possible.
  • Self isolate until you get the test results back. That includes isolating from your own family at home.
The government then has to do their part. After being tested far too many people haven't got their test results back, or got their results back in a timely manner (based on what I've read in the media and feedback from others). Results should be back within 48 hours. No one is going to wait around for test results because frankly, you may never hear anything.

The problem is the government has pushed hard to have a high number of people tested. Quantity has taken precedence of quality. That's pushed out the time taken to get test results back. That's exposed the community and continues to expose the community.

When a family member was tested one weekend because they were sick, they waited a few days and then went out to see family the following Friday. Nearly a week after getting tested. No message about results. The problem we had is we were then going to see the family member they had visited. Because we didn't know if the person was positive or not for coronavirus, we put our visit on hold. With a bit of internet searching I found the following number to call. The person was then able to call and with a bit of redirection got the result that they were negative for coronavirus.


Any system that needs to say "and have been waiting for more than 5 business days" is clearly not good enough. It's terrible. People need to know within 48 hours so they can take appropriate action.

Since the government is failing, if people end up being positive, those people can take action and help those around them. I get that people won't want to inform strangers, retailers, or organisations they may have visited, but just imagine if they did. We don't need government to speed up who knows. We just need to take action and that is in the hands of all of us.

I created a site www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/ which shows all the locations there's been coronavirus exposure across Victoria that I can find in the press online. I know it's not complete, but it's better than nothing. The government has all the data and could let us know all the public exposure locations people have been and keep us informed. They don't and to me that's a failure of the government. If there's a public location I can go to, I should know if there's been an exposure at that location and so should the community. We don't need to know people's private locations because if we know them, I'm sure they'll let us know if they're infected. Don't assume they'll tell you, You need to ask. Sadly that's just the way some people are.

The government is doing what they can and whilst I may not think it is enough, it's what they do. We can then add to what they do with our own actions. Together we can make a real difference.

Kelvin Eldridge





Monday, July 20, 2020

Victoria's top 5 coronavirus hotspots Moonee Valley, Melbourne, Wyndham, Hume and Brimbank


I produce the map for locations where's there been coronavirus in the community, but that's really half the picture. For privacy reasons data on where the people with coronavirus are located is limited to local government areas. It would be much better if the data was provided to postcode or suburb area, but at the moment's that's not the case.

Using the local government area (LGA) we can get a very rough idea of how many cases there have been around us. The data provided by the government is total number of infections and active cases. 

What I feel is important is the number of infections that have occurred over the last 14 days, but because that data isn't provided, we have to calculate the data ourselves. To make it easier to compare one area to another, we work out how many cases per hundred thousand people (CPHT). 

Now we can easily see which areas are the hotspots and which areas have had little or no cases reported over the last 14 days as at the 20th of July 2020.

Local Government Area People CPHT
Moonee Valley (C) 130,294 213
Melbourne (C) 178,955 160
Wyndham (C) 270,487 149
Hume (C) 233,471 149
Brimbank (C) 209,523 145
Yarra (C) 101,495 119
Maribyrnong (C) 93,448 111
Banyule (C) 131,631 102
Moreland (C) 185,767 100
Melton (C) 164,895 84
Whittlesea (C) 230,238 73
Hobsons Bay (C) 97,751 73
Colac-Otway (S) 21,564 56
Darebin (C) 164,184 55
Stonnington (C) 117,768 33
Manningham (C) 127,573 31
Port Phillip (C) 115,601 30
Whitehorse (C) 178,739 29
Mitchell (S) 46,082 28
Casey (C) 353,872 26
Greater Dandenong (C) 168,201 24
Boroondara (C) 183,199 23
Golden Plains (S) 23,722 21
Nillumbik (S) 65,094 20
Cardinia (S) 112,159 20
Monash (C) 202,847 18
Horsham (RC) 19,921 15
Loddon (S) 7,504 13
Kingston (C) (Vic.) 165,782 13
Bayside (C) 106,862 13
Glen Eira (C) 156,511 11
Glenelg (S) 19,674 10
South Gippsland (S) 29,914 10
Macedon Ranges (S) 50,231 10
Moorabool (S) 35,049 9
Knox (C) 164,538 9
Maroondah (C) 118,558 8
Frankston (C) 142,643 8
Ballarat (C) 109,505 8
Greater Geelong (C) 258,934 6
Baw Baw (S) 53,396 6
Bass Coast (S) 36,320 6
Mornington Peninsula (S) 167,636 5
Yarra Ranges (S) 159,462 5
Swan Hill (RC) 20,649 5
Latrobe (C) (Vic.) 75,561 4
Greater Bendigo (C) 118,093 3
Greater Shepparton (C) 66,498 3
Surf Coast (S) 33,456 3
Wellington (S) 44,380 2
Alpine (S) 12,814 0
Ararat (RC) 11,845 0
Benalla (RC) 14,037 0
Buloke (S) 6,124 0
Campaspe (S) 37,622 0
Central Goldfields (S) 13,186 0
Corangamite (S) 16,020 0
East Gippsland (S) 47,316 0
Gannawarra (S) 10,472 0
Hepburn (S) 15,975 0
Hindmarsh (S) 5,588 0
Indigo (S) 16,701 0
Mansfield (S) 9,176 0
Mildura (RC) 55,777 0
Moira (S) 29,925 0
Mount Alexander (S) 19,754 0
Moyne (S) 16,953 0
Murrindindi (S) 14,570 0
Northern Grampians (S) 11,402 0
Pyrenees (S) 7,472 0
Queenscliffe (B) 2,940 0
Southern Grampians (S) 16,100 0
Strathbogie (S) 10,781 0
Towong (S) 6,040 0
Wangaratta (RC) 29,187 0
Warrnambool (C) 35,181 0
West Wimmera (S) 3,841 0
Yarriambiack (S) 6,639 0
Wodonga (C) 42,083 -2

Analysing the data in this way does reveal that some regional local government areas have a higher number than would be desired since they are not locked down. A good thing to notice is there's also many local government areas that have no cases.

For me this data enables me to be aware of the risk whilst moving around in my own local area. I have to say, without knowing it the number of infections in my local area recently has grown quite a bit and that is a concern. A nudge to make sure I take the appropriate precautions.

Kelvin Eldridge

PS. For those eagle eyed amongst you, the result for Wodonga will most likely be because the figures were adjusted from an earlier period due to reassignment or duplication and hence the negative result.

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Coronavirus infected people in apartments in Victoria allowed to use common areas.

The Victoria government seems to keep doing things wrong when it comes to coronavirus, so it's little wonder Victoria is experiencing the worst outbreaks in the country. When I read the following article I simply couldn't believe it. It appears that in Victoria if you live in an apartment complex and you're infected with coronavirus, you can leave your apartment and use communal areas. Those living in apartments aren't happy that this is not as strict as recommended by the Federal government.


It's understandable that infected people who are restricted to their apartments for 14 days would feel quite restricted. If you think about it, returned travellers have to stay in hotel quarantine for 14 days and can't leave their room even if they aren't infected. So it does appear Victoria's rules for infected apartment dwellers really aren't up to scratch. When you think about infections in public housing it now starts to make sense how others can get infected. From the media many people in public housing apartments were complaining about infected people leaving their apartments and it make made no sense why they were allowed to, until you understand the Victorian's guildelines.

The following in the article I thought was interesting.

Victoria's Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, said the public should not become carried away with the risk of contracting coronavirus from shared surfaces such as lift buttons or stairwells. "The virus can survive for a number of hours but it's almost over-emphasised in the sense that people don't understand that that 1.5-metre distance is the most critical thing you can do,' Professor Sutton said on Wednesday.

Interestingly is the following article on an outbreak in China, where the outbreak started from a single asymptomatic person who travelled in the building's lift, resulting in 71 people getting infected.


Irrespective of what the government tells us to do, we should all do the best by ourselves and those around us. It's your health so ultimately it's up to you to do the best you can.

Kelvin Eldridge





Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Petrol price hike alert and update on Petrol Prices Melbourne site.

For some time I've been posting petrol price hike alerts as posts on this blog. From today the price hike information will appear on the Petrol Prices Melbourne site, as I feel that is possibly the best place for the information to appear.

On the Petrol Prices Melbourne page up until now, I've only published the current gate price (think wholesale price). This is to keep people aware of the gate price so when the retail price (pump price) gets close to the gate price, it's time to keep an eye on petrol prices. From now on when I notice the petrol price hike starts, I'll post the price petrol is hiking to and the date I noticed the petrol price hike start.

There's a couple of other things I'd like to share this month. The 7 Eleven fuel app has been updated so now only runs on Android mobiles with Android version 8 or above. Since my mobile runs Android version 7, I can no longer use or install that 7 Eleven fuel app. I can't justify updating my mobile as the cost of a new mobile would be a number of years petrol saving. The 7 Eleven fuel app is a good app to lock in the low price for another week. If you need to top up weekly this will give you a saving 12-13 times of year, which could add up to around a $200 saving (more if your household have multiple cars). For me that saving is less as I only top up every 2-3 weeks. With COVID-19 I can probably last from one price hike cycle to the next. In addition, with Woolworths' and Coles' discount vouchers, the price is nearly always cheaper at Coles Express or Woolworths Petrol than 7 Eleven.

The second change is Woolworths have updated their petrol app and all I can say is I don't like it at all. In fact I feel it's a waste of time. It's much harder to see the price of petrol around me and really, the PetrolSpy app can now do anything the Woolworths Petrol app can do plus a lot more.

The way I now use the PetrolSpy app is to help me see how the prices around me are looking. I open the app which is set on my currently location. I zoom out twice using the minus for the zoom. That gives me overview of a reasonably large area around me. Then I press what looks like the menu hamburger which shows me a list of petrol station prices starting with the lowest price first. To see how far the price hike has progressed I quickly scroll until the prices end (you'll see petrol stations with no prices). Then by scrolling back through the petrol stations with the hiked price, I can get an idea of what proportion of petrol stations have increased their price. As you scroll back further you'll see a big jump/drop to the current low price. As petrol stations all increase their prices the big jump/drop will go and prices will then all be around the new price. There will be a few cheaper priced petrol stations for a short while. Then as the petrol price cycle continues you'll see the price range will increase and that's where you can save perhaps 10 cent a litre by shopping around. As the petrol price cycle continues finally most of the petrol stations will have dropped their prices to the bottom (somewhere near the gate price) and we're ready for a new price hike to occur.

One other site I find useful to give an overview of how far the current price hike has progressed is the Motormouth site when used on a notebook computer. When I open Motormouth on the notebook and zoom out a couple of times I can see the proportion of red dots to green dots and that gives me a rough idea of how far the current price hike has progressed.

In summary, I no longer use the 7 Eleven fuel app, deleted the new Woolworths Petrol app and really only use the PetrolSpy app as required to check local prices and get an idea of prices further away. PetrolSpy often has poor data, but for 7 Eleven and Woolworths Petrol prices, these are usually good (can be a bit slow updating) as I feel this data is provided by the retailers and not by end users. For other petrol retailers the data can be missing, but if it's there, I'm cautious with trusting the data as often when I've tried to check out a cheap petrol price shown on PetrolSpy, the petrol station isn't that price at all.

That's about  all for this post. Because the petrol price hike information will be on the Petrol Prices Melbourne site I'll only write blog posts if something I feel may interest others.

Kelvin Eldridge

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Coronavirus: Melbourne public housing towers in Flemington and North Melbourne

The coronavirus cases rise in the public housing towers in Flemington and North Melbourne resulted in the Victorian government locking down 9 towers. I couldn't help at the time there could and should have been a better way.

The government knew where there were existing cases and where there had been no reported cases. To lock down all towers just felt like an overkill. You had to wonder if the government would do this with other towers that weren't public housing. Has there been cases in high density tower blocks that we don't know about. We don't know because this information isn't made public.

The problem really is whilst it may have been possible to have a rolling testing of towers and thus only lock down sections at a time doing so wouldn't have been fair. Who do you pick first? There's no real easy answer.

Now that testing is completed and the results are known, it's good that it's largely over. The following article was a good summary of the outcome of the testing.


Approximately 3,000 residents living in 1,345 units.
There were 2,515 tests completed, with 159 returning positive.

33 Alfred Street, North Melbourne: This tower will remain in lockdown for another 9 days. There were 53 cases.

9 Pampas Street and 159 Melrose Street, North Melbourne: No cases detected. Move to stage 3 restrictions.

12 Holland Court, 120 Racecourse, 126 Racecourse Road and 130 Racecourse Road in Flemington,
12 Sutton Street, 76 Canning Street in North Melbourne: Low level of cases. Move to stage 3 restrictions.

According to the following article there are 472 residents at 33 Alfred Street.

It really doesn't make sense why they'd leave so many people who aren't infected in a building with around 11% of other residents infected. I understand why infected people would rather stay in their own homes rather than into a hotel (as offered), where you don't know what level of facilities would be available. That's a pity because of the potential of people to infect others around them, or in their own family. There needs to be a better way.

 I do hope all ends well for the residents.

Kelvin Eldridge




Coronavirus: Current Victorian Travel restrictions for Metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire

If you need to travel during the current lock down, it's important to know what is allowed and what isn't allowed. I expect just as we saw some people getting fined for doing things we'd expect they should be able to do, as occurred in lock down one, being informed is a good way to minimise the chances of being fined and doing what is being asked of us.

Victorian woman fined $1,652 for feeding her horse

Whilst not a fine the following is about a person going to work was told to go home. This is an example of where some form of documentation may come in handy.

The following page from the Victorian Government may be able to help. Keep in mind things change and what the police do doesn't always seem to correspond to what the government says.

One activity that was not previously allowed in lock down one was the ability to simply go for a drive. According to the above document this is now possible. My gut feeling however is whilst it is stated, if you're pulled over by police and they say, "go home", then you should obey all instructions from law enforcement personnel. Keep on eye on the page as it can also change at any time.

Can I get out of the house and just go for a drive?

Yes, however this can only be undertaken within metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire, and should not involve leaving your vehicle for any purpose except for the four reasons (shopping for necessary goods or services, care, caregiving or compassionate reasons, exercise, and work or study).


Kelvin Eldridge

Update: 13 July 2020
Victoria police withdraw fine for woman feeding her horse.