Friday, January 06, 2017

Next petrol price hike is going to surprise people

For the last few weeks I've not quite understood why the retail price of petrol has come down so slowly. Since the last price hike for Melbourne, which occurred on the 9th of November, 58 days ago, prices have come down 8 cents or 0.13 cents per day. In the past I've prices have typically dropped between 0.5 to 1 cent per day and the petrol price cycle being around 3-4 weeks.

Initially I thought this was because the petrol companies kept prices high for the Christmas holiday period. Since people are used to the high price there would be no outcry with the petrol companies profiteering at holiday times and thus the bad press. However this doesn't appear to be the case.

What has also been happening is in the background the wholesale price has been going up. On the 9th of November the average wholesale price was 108.3, and today (6 January 2017), the average wholesale price is 118.9.

So perhaps there's two situations that have occurred. Keeping prices high to avoid bad press, but also increasing wholesale prices.

In the near future we are probably going to see the highest petrol prices we've seen for some time. When the petrol price discounting cycle finishes and the restoration to the higher price occurs, we often see a 20-30 cent increase. I suspect the next price increase will take us up to 139.9 (but could be 144.9)  and that will probably occur within the next one to two weeks.

When the price restoration (or what I call the petrol price hike) occurs, I will as usual alert everyone using this blog, Google+, Twitter and my Facebook account. You can also keep an eye on www.PetrolPricesMelbourne.com.au where I publish prices for petrol stations in my area.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.PetrolPricesMelbourne.com.au


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