I looked forward to riding around Albert Park Lake and it didn't disappoint. Although I really should have tightened the handlebars better on the new electric bike.
Kelvin
Sunday, December 20, 2020
Tuesday, December 08, 2020
Free parking in the City Of Melbourne from 1st of December to January 3rd 2021
It almost seems like councils want to keep slugging us with ever increasing parking fees, or issue parking fines, so it's unexpected and welcome when the City of Melbourne issues free parking vouchers from the 1st of December to the 3rd of January.
Of course it does make sense. In this extraordinary time of coronavirus it appears the gloves are off to encourage us to shop in the city with free parking. Never one to look a gift horse in the mouth, you can find the free voucher at https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/parking-and-transport/parking/parking-locations-fees/Pages/free-parking-december.aspx.
Enjoy,
Kelvin Eldridge
www.JustLocal.com.au
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
When our leaders get it wrong during the coronavirus pandemic, it's a reminder that anyone can get it wrong.
When one of our leaders breaks the very rules they're asking the rest of us to follow, it's a reminder that all of us, no matter who we are, or the position we hold, are just as fallible. It is a reminder that we should be tolerant of those who make mistakes and don't do what we'd normally expect of them during the coronavirus pandemic.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian admits she didn't isolate after coronavirus test last week - ABC News
It's very easy for us when we see news items to judge others, but in the moment we can all make mistakes and errors in judgement, even our leaders do.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Dan Andrews flip-flops between using dates and trigger points.
I noticed at one point the Dan Andrews announced the opening up of Victoria would not be based on dates but reaching trigger points.
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/coronavirus-victoria-new-date-for-step-three-in-melbourne/news-story/f80b425404010ab75273586a872bcbb5
If you were to revisit earlier roadmaps for Victoria you'd notice the next step for easing restrictions was when Victoria reached no new cases for 14 days, yet a few days ago the Victorian government flip-flopped from using the trigger point of now new cases for 14 days to the next step being on the 22nd of November, well over a week later.
From roadmap on the 9th of November.
From roadmap on the 11th of November
As of today there's 13 consecutive days with zero cases of coronavirus in Victoria, tomorrow hopefully that will reach the 14 days. If that happens Victoria would have reached the milestone required for the last step, yet the government has yet again moved the goal posts. You would think reaching a virus free target would be far less arbitrary than a nominated date, yet the government has flip-flopped on Dan Andrews statement. You have to wonder why?
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Monday, November 09, 2020
An interesting observation. How many coronavirus cases were there that started with a healthcare workers in Victoria?
It occurred to me that an interesting figure would be the number of cases of coronavirus occurred as a result of an infected healthcare worker passing coronavirus on to family, friends and coworkers. This isn't to highlight one group, but to highlight the importance of ensuring our healthcare workers are given the best possible equipment and support to keep themselves and the community safe.
When I was growing up I recall there was the Fairfield Infectious Diseases Hospital and I couldn't help wonder what is done now in terms of infectious diseases. With a relatively low number of cases of coronavirus, a single hospital with the best facilities and controls could keep or minimise infections reaching the community via healthcare workers. It appears there's now infectious disease departments in multiple hospitals which means multiple points of exposure for the community.
As an example, if we look at the most recent outbreak at the East Preston Islamic College, there was a total of 39 infections across 11 (/13) households. The originating case for this outbreak appears to be a healthcare worker from the Box Hill hospital.
As of November 8th there were 3,574 healthcare workers that had been infected. One of these healthcare workers in theory was the origin of possibly 38/39 cases. With a total of 20,345 coronavirus cases so far in Victoria, it's not inconceivable to think that perhaps the majority of coronavirus cases may have come about from healthcare workers if one infected healthcare worker can result in 38/39 cases. This highlights how critical it is to ensure everything that is possible is done to ensure healthcare workers are given everything above and beyond what is needed.
It would certainly be interesting to see what the final number of cases of coronavirus were that started with a healthcare worker as it might highlight where one of the greatest exposures are in terms of the spread of the coronavirus and where more resources could be focused.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Sunday, November 08, 2020
New rule for two visitors to another house is going to confuse people and unlikely to be followed due to confusion.
One thing the Victorian government continues to do that doesn't make sense, is not to treat a household as a single entity. In the last change to restrictions starting at 11:59pm on the 27th of October two people and their dependents could visit another house.
Visitors to the home: Up to two people from
the same household can visit a
household. Once a day you can visit someone
or have visitors. Infants under 12 months are
not included in this cap, and other
dependants can also attend if they cannot be
left unattended or cared for in another
setting. The two people must be from the
same household and 25km rule applies.
What doesn't make sense is if someone in a household is infected with coronavirus then it's possible, probably likely, another person in the household could be infected. If a two people from a household visit another person who is infected and returns to their household they're likely to infect those who didn't visit another person's house. Treating a household as a single entity makes sense, whereas treating the household as separate individuals in terms of activities doesn't.
By enabling the entire household to visit as a single entity the entire entity is exposed, or exposes at the same level. It's also unlikely the people will know, or even have a clue as to what represents "if they cannot be left unattended". When is it that we can leave a child home unattended? I certainly don't know the answer to that and I'm sure most people don't.
Now we have the new rules starting from 11:59pm on the 8th of November and things are just going to get totally confusing for people visiting another household.
Now instead of the two people that could visit another household, we can have two people from two different households visit another house. So of the original two people who could visit previously only one can now visit. Talk about a big step backwards and it really isn't going to make sense to anyone.
You can still only have a maximum of two people to visit per day. Going forward though, those two people don’t need to be from the same household, and they’ll be able to come at different times.
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-81
This is not progression, it's a backward step.
If you think about this logically with the original two people and their dependents, if one of those people now has to stay home, it means only one person and no dependents should visit and that could be true of the second person who visits. Assuming both visitors have partners then no dependents should need to visit because their partners can look after the dependents. Is this what the government really intended?
Why isn't it that the original two people (and their dependents) could visit and then an additional two people and their dependents visit. This is supported to be about gradually opening up, not having backwards steps.
Perhaps what this shows is the government hasn't thought out the steps as well as they should have.
To go from no visitors to two visitors from the one household then back to one visitor from the household is not a logical progression.
Only those who try to understand the rules and follow the rules will do what the government is asking. The rest of Victorians will see this as silliness and do what they feel is appropriate.
It's also a concern as to how this is going to be monitored and enforced. The only way people would know you had two lots of visitors where partners attended as well as dependents, is if neighbours are really keeping tabs on each other in minute detail and that's being encouraged by the government. That's the type of society you read about in futuristic books, or how The Colony on Netflix has neighbours watching others. I know that's not the society I want for myself, my family and my children.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
PS. The following is the Roadmap summary for Metropolitan Melbourne
https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-10/Victorias-roadmap-for-reopening-How-we-live-in-metropolitan-Melbourne-FINAL.pdf
There have been changes such as the number of visitors from separate households from 11:59pm, on 8 November 2020 as detailed in the Premier's statement.
Monday, November 02, 2020
Red-light speed camera reinstallation at Anzac Parade and Todman Avenue, Kensington.
The red-light speed camera has been reinstalled at the intersection of Anzac Parade and Todman Avenue, Kensington. According to the following article the camera was installed in 2011 and removed in 2016 for the construction of the light rail. If you check Google Street View for December 2015 you can see the camera was located in the median strip opposite the 7 Eleven petrol station.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.SpeedCamerarLocations.com.au/nsw/
Sunday, October 25, 2020
Why is Mornington Peninsula being treated differently than the Ballerine Peninsula when it comes to Victoria's lockdown?
When you look at the Bellarine Peninsula, which includes Geelong, the area is treated by the Victorian government as being regional for the purposes of coronavirus and the lockdown, but the Mornington Peninsula is being treated the same as metropolitan Melbourne. Based on the case numbers this doesn't make sense.
Whilst there is a large gap between the suburbs in the west to Geelong based on distance, the reality is the area is served by a major freeway that means the actual distance isn't as relevant. The Mornington Peninsula doesn't have the large open area, but should that make a difference.
I decided to bring up a map showing the coronavirus cases in Victoria for the last 50 days.
Map showing the number of cases by postcode for the last 50 days.
You can see from the map there's only been one case in the Mornington Peninsula and two cases in the Bellarine Peninsula. So effectively little difference in the number of cases when we take into account the population difference between the two areas.
There is no reason the Victorian government can't declare the Mornington Peninsula for the purposes of the coronavirus to be effectively the same as a regional area, just as the government included the regional area of Mitchell when it made sense to the government in July.
By treating the Mornington Peninsula the same as a regional area, that part of Victoria can start to return to normal. Right now however the Mornington Peninsula is open to anyone from an area that has had cases and lives or works within 25km. That doesn't seem fair to those who live in the Mornington Peninsula area. The Mornington Peninsula is covered by a single Local Government Area so it is a well defined area.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
PS. For those who wonder why I chose 50 days, it is because I only have 51 days of data and 50 was the nearest round number.
Dan's Andrews mistakes with communication this week.
This week I've noticed a couple of mistakes Dan Andrews has made with his communication that is certainly impacting the morale of the Victorian citizens, but in another area creating confusion which could lead to people getting fined.
The first is the hype during the week from the press leading people to expect on Sunday the 25th of October we could hear a significant announcement, yet it didn't happen. Supposedly it didn't happen because of two days with the days cases being 7 each day. The problem is this doesn't look good. On the one hand the government is saying we'll average cases over a 14 day period (ending an additional 2 days ago) and if the figure reaches an average of 5 cases per day with 5 mystery cases the target has been reached. Yet there's been a knee jerk reaction because of the two last days. You can't, or shouldn't create a perception of a target that is averaged over a longer period of time, just to change path because of the cases number for two days. The case numbers are largely from a single known outbreak. With the number of mystery cases being 9, that's so close to 5 most people wouldn't consider the difference significant, yet the government flips as though they are in panic mode.
The problem is the government isn't taking small incremental steps. Today, even with the higher numbers, some announcements could have been made. But it wasn't and that's a concern as it indicates the government doesn't have the knowledge or skill/technology to make that happen. As a citizen that's a concern.
Even taking into account the last two days case numbers, the rolling average will still be going down. We'd need the higher case numbers to continue for probably 3-5 days for the average to start going up.
The second issue is the 25km Radius announcement the government made. I can say the extra distance is probably welcome by most people. However the four reasons to leave home appears to have been lost on people. People don't realise the four reasons still apply.
Many people don't realise you just can't go out travelling up to 25km without complying with the four reasons.
Many people don't realise that you can socialise outside with another person, just as you can exercise.
Many people don't realise the 25km radius also applies places of permitted work, where workers can use their workplace as the centre of the 25km radius.
People don't realise the going to other places hasn't started in the metro area and has only started in the regional areas.
The 25km radius message was so strong it overwhelmed the additional conditions of the four reason.
All of this means the communication from the government is failing and people are getting the wrong message.
I am constantly talking with people and letting people know what they can and can't do. These are well educated people. People with their first language as English. If these people don't know what their responsibilities and obligations are, then something is going wrong. The government needs to make sure their message is as clear as possible.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Is the East Preston islamic College and EPIC failure of the DHHS?
My concern, and I'm sure it's a concern of others, is the opening of schools is necessary, but it also represents a huge risk of coronavirus spreading in the community. When I read the statement from the principal of the East Preston Islamic College, it does appear, probably for privacy reasons, important information is not being shared by the DHHS.
https://www.epic.vic.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EPIC-Release-23102020-1.pdf
More can and does need to be done by the DHHS. Most schools now have a nurse on staff (East Preston Islamic College from their site appears to) and we can expect nurses to treat personal information of students as confidential. The principal doesn't even need to be informed of the details, short of perhaps letting them know the nurse is looking after an issue.
What seems to be lacking in this case is a personal schedule for the family where each member of the family is given a timeline of what is expected of them. Printed and explained. Then before any person in the family is able to return to school, the school nurses can make sure the students have been cleared for returning to school.
There is no reason this case should have occurred. It's is not the family's fault. I for one find knowing what I can do, or can't do at times quite difficult. The information provided by the government appears obscure at the best of times. Try calling someone to find out the answers and it's near impossible to get in contact with someone.
Right now the cases are extremely low. In fact so low each case could easily have a single person dedicated to the case. The idea that people will get obscure text messages from possibly private or unknown numbers just doesn't work in today's society, where you can't trust messages and calls from unknown numbers. Scammers right now are taking advantage of the situation.
This would have to be another EPIC failure of the DHHS which is a real pity. You would think after so many months of dealing with COVID-19 things like people going to school when they're potentially infected shouldn't occur. The fact that it did occur isn't the fault of the family. It's a fault of the system currently in place that enabled it to happen.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Update: 25 October 2020
9 News has a very good graphic showing the 11 households involved in the East Preston Islamic College outbreak. It is interesting to see how the outbreak originated at a hospital and has now impacted two aged care facilities (staff only at this point). The aged care facilities for the graphic are Regis Macleod and Estia Keilor. Whilst it would be a guess, the hospital outbreak is probably Box Hill. (26/10/2020 Now confirmed worker from Box Hill hospital who contracted virus from patient. Worker worked across wards infecting another staff member and patient.) The Royal Children's and Alfred have had cases around the time but based on location less likely.
What the graphic makes you ponder is the number of households involved. The graphic may suggest households are linked with no other connection, which may suggest households visiting each other. If this is the case, and there's no evidence given it is, it is an important example of why we should not meet each other indoors.
It's also interesting to see how many people in the one household become infected. If there's an infected person in the house it really isn't wise for everyone else to be around the infected person. Earlier stats I read indicated a person will infect 25% of people in the household before they know they're infected. After they know they're infected they're likely to infect 50% of people in the household. Of the 11 households 9 have cases, with three having the entire family infected. The longer families are together the more likely the entire family becomes infected and more cases occur.
If you think about Victoria's lockdown strategy of reopening once the state reaches 5 cases per day (14 day average), one case in a household can lead to other cases even if they're all in quarantine and there's thus no risk to the community. Just numbers of cases increasing. This cluster is 33 cases over 18 days which is nearly 2 cases per day. The hospital outbreak where this started could easily keep the entire state in lockdown. That doesn't make sense since contacts and contacts of contacts can (or should) in theory be quickly identified and quarantined.
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
25km radius gives workers far more freedom than they probably realise.
One thing I don't think Melburnians may realise is if they go to work, they're also allowed to exercise or socialise (outside) up to 25km from their work. Depending on where they work that can potentially give some people up to 50km range where they can see family and friends for exercise or socialising.
For example, say you work in the city but live in the north or eastern suburbs. That means you could potentially catch up with family and friends as far away as Werribee and down to Mordialloc.
To see where you can go put in the GPS location of your work into www.25kmRadius.com.au and you can see both your home and work locations. That's where you can travel to exercise or socialise.
Now then consider your family and friends also have the ability to travel a 25km radius from their home or work to exercise or socialise. That means you can catch up with people who potentially are up to 50km away from your work or home.
The following is from the Victorian government's website.
Metropolitan Melbourne is in Second Step restrictions. From 11:59pm 18 October 2020 a number of restrictions are easing. The changes to restrictions include:
You can now travel up to 25 km from your home or permitted workplace within metropolitan Melbourne. This replaces the 5km rule. Travel to regional Victoria is still only allowed for permitted purposes even if this is within 25 kms. This means you cannot travel into regional Victoria for exercise or recreation.
Once you realise you now have to option to travel up to 25kms from both your home and permitted workplace, and your family and friends have the same option, that really does open up so many options for all of us.
In a way it's a bit sad that this is exciting. Our freedom has been taken away from us (for good reason) and it's now fun that it's being handed back in small chunks. Just a sign of the times.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Monday, October 19, 2020
Why electric scooters may actually be safer than bicycles.
When I read the following article of an elderly man being hit by a bike rider it makes me think why are bicycles allowed and electric scooters aren't allowed. Both represent a degree of risk but electric scooter with their lighter weight and slower speeds are far more pedestrian friendly on shared paths.
Reportedly the cyclist was going along at 22kph. Even as an elderly slow cyclist I can maintain a speed of around 18kph. In addition my bike weight around 18kg and if it was electric, probably around 20-24kg. When on an electric scooter when passing people it's usual to pass others at close to walking distance. People walking are the most unpredictable group when you're travelling. They can stop immediately and go left or right without warning. How many times do people bump into you whilst walking through shops. Imagine if every day you drove someone bumped into you!
It really doesn't make sense why we have cyclists with much heavier weights and higher speeds moving amongst pedestrians when in Victoria electric scooters aren't encouraged.
Out of interest I decided to do some very rough maths. The only thing I could think of which would allow me to compare was comparing an object's kinetic energy. Let's say you're standing still and someone else runs into you. How much kinetic energy do they have?
Assumptions
Person 70kg
Bicycle 18kg
Scooter 12kg
Walking 4km/h
Running 9.9km/h
(Used the average of 9.7 minutes per 1.6km based on data from this site.)
Scooting 15km/h
Cycling 22km/h
All the above figures are estimates and not based on any scientific evidence. In essence, used for obtaining an approximate comparison.
The formula for kinetic energy is ½mv2 where m is mass and v is velocity. The result is expressed in joules (j). Now we can calculate the kinetic energy for each situation.
Person walking 560j
Person running 3,430j
Person scooting 9,225j
Person cycling 21,296j
We can see from the above the considerably larger kinetic energy of a person cycling compare to a person using a scooter.
There will always be people that aren't considerate of others whether they're cyclists, scooters, or pedestrians. We just all need to slow down and be more considerate of each other.
Kelvin Eldridge
Sunday, October 18, 2020
25km radius web app now available for Victorians under coronavirus restrictions.
For those who have been using my 5km Radius, the Victorian government has now announced from 11:59pm tonight, the distance restriction will be increased from 5km to 25km. Perhaps not enough for some, but for us it's great. A welcome relief in these lockdown times.
You can find the new 25km Radius web app at the following address.
Don't forget you can share the app with others and if you send it to each other with your locations you can see where the 25km radius overlaps and that's where you can meet with family or friends for exercise or socialising.
Also, by entering your family or friends GPS location you can see where your 25km radius areas overlap. Not sure how to find your GPS location then watch the video I created at https://youtu.be/48BpoKSUe0E. In particular read the note at the end. It's an even easy method of getting a GPS location from Google maps.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Thursday, October 15, 2020
Crazy images of people being test in Shepparton for coronavirus.
When I see the images of people lined up in Shepparton I can't help but think, what the heck are they thinking!
(Source: News.com.au)
I can't help thinking, if people aren't infected already, they probably are now.
Surely this type of snake line of people under an enclosed roof must increase the risk of people getting infected. Yes masks reduce the risk by about half, and outside reduces the risk by a factor of 20 (but this isn't really completely outside since there's a cover), but even so there's many dozens of people. so even if you reduce the factor by 80, if there's 100 people there together you've probably just increase the chances of someone getting infected if there's an infect person there. Worse if there's more than one.
I can't help wonder why they simply didn't set up mobile testing stations. No crowds of people together. Yes long queues of cars but that could be handle in an appropriate setting.
I for one would not risk getting tested in such a location. I honestly can't believe so many people would go out and get tested in this way.
Keep in mind most of the people will be test as negative. But if they one or more people are positive, then all these people become close contacts to those positive people, as they may then have become infected waiting to be tested and that won't show up in their test.
If we look at the maths, the R rate for coronavirus is 1.1.-1.4. That is one person goes on to infect between 1.1. and 1.4 other people on average. The case in question was in Shepparton on the 29 and 30th of September, and it is now the 15th of October, say 16 days later. Based on the R rate we could expect between 4-155 cases. When the three positive cases were reported it was the date was on the 13th when we could have expected between 3 and 79 possible cases.
What may also keep these numbers lower is Shepparton would have a more sparse population than average. Melbourne has a population density of 500 people per square kilometre whereas Shepparton has a population density of 201 per square kilometre (information from Google query). You would think that may make a difference for the number of infections.
The Victorian government has taken a different approach using a three ring strategy to isolate people. The case, their contacts and their contacts, contacts. Using that approach should quickly reduce the chances of the infection getting out of control.
Yet I still can't help thinking bringing so many people together was most likely not a good idea. What were they thinking.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Update: 15/10/2020
I noticed on today's update from the government there's three drive-through sites available so credit goes to the government.
The impact of coronavirus cases for healthcare workers on the daily average for Victoria.
One concern I have about the modelling for coronavirus in Victoria is we don't know the assumptions behind the modelling. For instance, have they taken into account the different risk profiles and how that affects the model. For example healthcare workers are by the work they do, in a very risky situation. If healthcare workers and given the same weighting in the model as everyone else, the modelling will be affected.
In plain English, should the coronavirus cases for healthcare workers be included in the model. It all depends on the assumptions made by the people who create the model and no model is perfect.
So let's look at the situation that is happening in Victoria with coronavirus cases. The graph below shows the number of cases daily, the number of cases for healthcare workers and the rolling 14 day average for the daily and healthcare cases.
It is important to note the rolling averages will differ from the government's published rolling average as the I suspect the government adjusts the cases per day retrospectively as their data is updated and corrected. Otherwise the data that is published publicly can be used as a good guide.
As at the 14th of October the rolling average daily cases from this data is 10.1 and for Healthcare workers the figure is 3.4.
Over the past 30 days Healthcare workers have made up 36.5% of all cases, and at over a third of cases, that's a disproportionate percentage for a single group and should thus be treated differently in a model.
The reason it's important to reflect on the situation with Healthcare workers is because by their very nature these workers are known, work in known environments and are easily traced. Around 70% of healthcare workers infections have been traced to the work environment but the number could easily be higher. Healthcare workers are not a random sample of people. To weight healthcare workers the same as the general public could cause the state to remain in lockdown longer than need be.
The secondary affect of including healthcare workers with the same weighting in the model as the general public the healthcare workers will then also go on to infect their families, and perhaps to a lesser extent friends. Healthcare workers are very well educated and know the risks. Tracing of contacts of Healthcare workers you'd expect to be quick and these contacts would generally know what they need to do. This group by its nature is well informed and you would expect the larger group would work far more quickly than the general public to contain an outbreak. What we would expect to see is infected healthcare workers infecting their family but quick containment and thus low risk to the rest of the community. A model however would only see the numbers and this again may cause Victoria to remain in lockdown longer than needed since we're using a 14 day rolling average as a guide.
Healthcare workers are playing an important and valued roll in this epidemic and this post is in no way meant to disrespect healthcare workers. This post is about highlighting the importance of the model and if the model doesn't weight healthcare workers differently then all of Victoria continues to suffer in lockdown.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronaviruvictoria/
www.Mapz.com.au/coronaviruvictoria/
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Daniel Andrews and Brett Sutton should reconsider using phone data location tracing if someone has done something wrong.
I'm getting the feeling in the press that Dan Andrews and Brett Sutton are blaming the person for not coming forward with the information, but the problem is, the person already broke the rules by dining in a cafe in regional Victoria. That should immediately flag that further investigation needs to be done by contract tracers. So in fact no matter what this person did, the contract tracers did not follow through when a person had already done the wrong thing.
If a person does the right thing through their actions, they're showing they can be trusted. It's no one's fault a person gets infected. But if you do something wrong there could be consequences. If people do something wrong a different level of investigation should be carried out and that includes phone records. By not doing that all Victorians are being inconvenienced in lockdown and that isn't fair on those doing the right thing.
Secondly, regional businesses have to start treating every customer as a potential traveller from Melbourne. In this case the person in question supposedly, may have, had a meal in a cafe, had a meal at a restaurant, went to a golf course, went to Bunnings, had a hair cut, yet none of these businesses appears to have challenged where the person lived. If it's true and it's hard to know if the information is correct in the media, these businesses also let us all down.
We are in the incredible situation where people who get infected with coronavirus can do the wrong thing and then if they're honest and forthcoming, they get away scott-free. The benefit to the community outweighs the punishment of the one. That doesn't seem right or fair, but it's what is necessary.
If people are doing the right thing it makes sense standard contract tracing should be followed. But when there's a red flag by someone that has already done the wrong thing, then surely the contract tracers should have done more.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Thursday, October 08, 2020
Contacts of contacts of coronavirus cases isolating now being trialled.
I found it interesting in the Kilmore coronavirus cases the government is now trialling 14 day isolation of contacts of contacts of coronavirus cases. At first I thought this is a good thing, but again it appears, to me at least, the government has missed the mark.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-07/coronavirus-outbreak-kilmore-fears-more-restrictions/12736860
If someone gets infected it makes sense the close contacts isolate for 14 days. By makes sense, you still have to wonder if 14 days is really the appropriate length of time. For example people are tested after 11 days and then their isolation is over after 14 days. So why not 12 days if it now supposedly takes a day to get the test result back. I still haven't found conclusive scientific studies to indicate after how many days a coronavirus test can identify a person is infected. Early on the figure was 95% certainty after 5 days. More recently the median was reported as 8 days. Reportedly there's around 97% certainty after 14 days and if that's true, that still means 3 cases per 100 could be positive. I have a feeling this information is probably available somewhere.
Back to the point. I think it is very good that contacts of contacts are now asked to isolate. This should have been done months ago. But once the contact of the positive case is shown to be negative, then really should the contacts of the contacts still be isolated? What is the probability of the contact of the case developing coronavirus once they've tested negative? Then what is the probably of the contact of a contact that has initially tested negative becoming positive. I can only guess the probably would have to be very low.
To have contacts of contacts isolate for 14 days once the initial contact has test negative and results are known, should probably mean all their contacts no longer need to isolate.
I do feel the government has made progress by asking contacts of contacts to isolate (taken far too long to get to that point), but it does make sense for contacts of contacts to isolate until the result for the initial positive case contact is known. From earlier media reports contacts of contacts did not have to isolate at all, which I don't think was a good approach.
No matter what the government does, what you do is your choice. For us if someone we know needs to get tested, if we know one of their contacts, we won't go near that contact until we know the result of for the person they've been in contact with.
If the test was positive and we'd been in contact with their cases contact, we'd isolate until the contact was tested and their results were back as negative. If the result of the contact was positive we'd isolate for 14 days and also get tested. We would let anyone we knew that had been in contact with us we'd been in contact with a positive case, so they could isolate immediately and wait until we received our test result.
There are many things which makes it harder and one thing is false negatives. That means people think they've not infected when they actually are infected. Luckily percentage wise this is relatively low.
The rough timeline that I think is important to consider is:
1. Person is known to have coronavirus and is thus positive.
2. The person may have taken 2-3 days before symptoms appeared, or not symptoms may have appeared at all. It is important to take into account contact with a person before they were known to be positive. Also it takes 1-2 days to get test results back. People may also wait a day or two after they get initial symptoms before they get tested. Overall this could mean 5-7 days for a person that is positive since they were infected.
3. Contacts of a positive person should probably to wait 2-3 days before being tested to ensure they would have a sufficient viral load to provide a reliable result.
4. Contacts of contacts then also need to wait 2-3 days before being tested to see if they are infect. It's here there's a problem because typically contacts of contacts, if I'm correct, have typically not been able to get tested. This is where we have a hole in our approach to containing coronavirus. I suspect the best we can hope for is if we are a contact of a contact, then if the contact of the positive case gets a negative result, there's a very high probability the contact of a contact would also be negative.
Based on the above it would then probably be wise for contacts of contacts to isolate for at least 3 days, but preferably up to 5 days as this is when symptoms, if they are to show, will have shown.
In summary, the important period for a positive case is the period of up to 7 days before they are known to be positive. If you've been a close contact during this period then you should isolate for 14 days. As a contact of a contact if the contact is negative then it would be prudent to isolate for 3-5 days, but if they are positive then you become the close contact of a positive cases and should then isolate for 14 days. The missing component from the government's coronavirus control strategy has been contacts of contacts. Since it is missing, then it is up to ourselves as contacts of contacts to do what we feel is right in the interests of everyone..
Finally, one thing I noticed in some articles for Kilmore were pictures with long queues of people waiting to be tested. Yes they were wearing masks, yes they were social distancing, yes they were outside, but the type of masks only reduce the risk by half and when you have a large number of people together for an extended period of time, the risk of infection increases. If possible opt for being tested using a drive through facility, Whilst there's no proof of anyone being infected waiting for tests, there's been thousands of Victorians infect where they don't know the source. Best to be as safe as possible.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Wednesday, October 07, 2020
Lessons from The Butcher Club and Oddfellows Cafe with respect to coronavirus
There's no doubt both The Butcher Club at Chadstone and Oddfellows Cafe in Kilmore have been affected by coronavirus. I couldn't help after reading the articles there's a couple of lessons that could be learnt.
The Butcher Club at Chadstone Shopping Centre
The manager of The Butcher Club at Chadstone Shopping Centre said in the article he felt it was a bit strange only one cleaner came.
That should have been a clue to ask more questions. If you think something is strange, it probably is.
Oddfellows Cafe in Kilmore
The owner of the cafe was devastated and angry after trying so hard to keep the business open during these difficult times.
From the article the person from Melbourne was granted permission to care for someone in Kilmore.
The first problem is one of education. The person from Melbourne has to abide by the stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne, which means only having take-away food, not dining in. Either the person simply ignored their obligations or didn't know. People who are from Melbourne need to be educated and signal they are aware of their obligations if they obtain a permit to travel to regional Victoria.
Whilst I can't be certain this case was also connected to a Tyre business some hour and a half away in Benalla. There's no enough information to see if these locations are connected, but they are a significant distance from each other.
The lesson is that business owners in regions should probably check the licence of customers that are dining to ensure they are not from Metropolitan Melbourne. Perhaps signs should be displayed to educated customers that if they are from Melbourne, takeaway only is available.
It's easy in hindsight to think these actions should have been done, but it's not easy to think of everything, but we can learn from each other.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Tuesday, October 06, 2020
Officeworks click and collect - real-time drive video of collecting purchase.
It's interesting to see which businesses are good at handling click and collect. We jokingly say if you order from a company that uses Australia Post, it's click and forget. But with click and collect, if the stock is available, you'll generally get it by the next day.
In this case I ordered a software updated from Officeworks on via the internet to be collected. It was Thursday night so it was expected I'd have to wait until Saturday and was advised the item would be available Saturday. To my pleasure I received a notification early Friday the item was ready for collection.
The service was very good. The only issue I have with click-and-collect is often the location you pick up the item is not clearly signed. This was true for Officeworks at Doncaster. I entered via the Tram Road entrance and there was nothing to indicate where I should go for the click and collect pick up. Not a big deal since I drove the only way customers are supposed to go and found the tent quite easily.
Because I have a dashcam I thought I'd share the experience I recorded. You can find the video on YouTube at the following location.
Hope it helps in some way.
Kelvin Eldridge
Friday, October 02, 2020
Proof indicating there's been cases of coronavirus infections on Qantas flights.
I remember reading in the media where there was no proof that people had been infected whilst flying in Australia. Now we have fairly clear evidence from the CDC in America. The flight was on the 19th of March and was the Qantas flight QF577 that left Sydney for Perth. There were 243 passengers, 60 that were infected from cruise ships and 11 that were suspect to have been infected during the flight.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/10/02/jetstar-social-distancing/
To say that you can't catch coronavirus on a flight is now something that can't easily be said as there's evidence that points to the contrary.
It was interesting to read this article as it highlights so many issues we have in Australia. Flying is an activity where you are placed very close to other people. The article for the link above was about a doctor that was removed from the Jetstar plane for asking if they could move to where they felt safer. From their own statement they didn't cause an issue, was submissive, but was still removed from the plane.
I understand the air hostess's point of view that because of tracing people can't move. But that's an issue with their system. There should be a way for people to move and for that to be recorded in the system for later contract tracing if required.
Surely masks should be mandatory on all flights.
The real concern is that people can't ask for something something without fear of heavy handed law enforcement.
The good thing is we know this is the current situation in Australia. For me it will be long time until I decide to fly again. It's good that people share their experience so we can be informed and adjust for this rather difficult time.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Update: 5 November 2020
Research article indicating infections occurred whilst flying.
https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/flight-associated-transmission-of-severe-acute-respiratory-syndro
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Have a feeling there may be a class action for detention in hotel quarantine.
I'm not legally qualified in any way, but I always felt the detention of people in quarantine for the benefit of the community should mean the people get compensated for giving up their liberty, rather than being treated like prisoners.
Reading today's article from news.com.au where there's a comment suggesting the hotel quarantine may not have been legal makes me think there's a class action waiting to happen. You can't just lock people up in rooms for 14 days and not make every effort to support those people beyond the basics.
I suspect most people will take the attitude that people should have been locked up in hotel quarantine, but then ask yourself, what if it was you? What if you had your liberty taken away from you for 14 days through no fault of your own. I've read a lot of information published and it appears that after around 5 days some 95% of people who are infected can be tested and shown to be infected. If that's true a test down after 5 days would have shown the risk posed by the majority of these people to be very low.
My only thought really is that people who have the liberty taken away from them through no fault of their own for the benefit of the community should have been compensated.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Monday, September 28, 2020
Coronavirus Victoria site retired and coronavirus information for Victorian again lives under the Mapz site.
About a month ago I thought I'd would see if by taking the coronavirus information I share out from under the Mapz site an set up its own site, whether or not Google would give the site some love. Google has been good in limiting bad information and bad players, which is good, but for me that also means they're giving no love to the information I provide. That didn't change with the coronavirus information now on a separate site.
So instead of having old out of date information on one site and the new information on another, I decided to move the coronavirus information and data back to the Mapz site. Now all links point to the current and up-to-date information.
I started collecting coronavirus information as I found what was coming from the government and the media wasn't well organised. The government's lack of information at the time (almost nothing useful) and then watching for articles on the internet meant I had a good handle on what was going on around me. Perhaps not great, but much better than anywhere else that I could find. I felt safer and more informed. The first site was for public exposure locations around Victoria which also provides a daily running total of cases, change in cases, deaths and community infection numbers where the cases weren't from a known source.
Public Exposure Locations In Victoria
Interestingly I found I'd collated quite a bit of information and was able to identity a fair number of the outbreaks. It wasn't until much later (late September) the Victorian government provided up-to--date figures on aged care that I realised just how much information the government had withheld. Aged care premises with dozens of cases never got mentioned by the government or the media. It turned out that around half the cases were aged care or health workers. That helped to identify the risk to the general public was about half of what the government and media would have us believe.
Outbreak locations in Victoria
Finally around June some postcode data started coming out, but unfortunately that didn't last long. Then in August the Victorian government to their credit started releasing daily figures for individual postcodes. I found their online maps difficult to use (early versions nearly impossible), and whilst it did take some work, I created a postcode map that allowed me to more easily see the number of new cases and also a rough indicated of the number of cases for a range of days over the last seven days. Now I could better see what was happening locally day and over say the past week. I had options. Now whilst the data isn't perfect because it uses residential location for postcode (even post office boxes), I suspect it's a good indication for 80% plus of cases.
Coronavirus data by postcode location in Victoria
All of the data I collect and collect is now available in the one place at www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/.
Finally, when I find information I feel may be useful to others I write a blog post such as this one. From the Coronavirus Victoria pages if you click on the News menu item you'll see only posts that related to the coronavirus and no other posts.
I hope the information helps in some way.
Kelvin Eldridge
It's good to see face shields removed from acceptable list for masks in Victoria.
Some time ago I wrote about face shields not being the safest option to protect people in Victoria from coronavirus. The following research article from Japan now shows that face shields are ineffective.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Airlines would have us believe catching coronavirus on a flight doesn't happen. Research shows otherwise.
I've read quite a articles from airlines that would lead me to believe catching coronavirus on a flight doesn't happen and it's safe to fly. Until now I haven't found any research to disprove the airlines' assertions but now research has shown people have been infected on flights, so it can and does happen.
What is interesting is the research in this case was about a person in business class where the distance between passengers is greater. In addition in the case provided the number of people infected that were around the positive person was quite high with an attack rate of 62% for the business class section of the plane.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Monday, September 21, 2020
Dan Andrew's current restrictions don't make sense.
Two weeks ago Dan Andrews published a roadmap. This supposedly was based on comprehensive modelling. Yet two weeks later the state has already reached 30-50 cases. If the numbers were guiding Dan Andrews then this Sunday or sometime this week, the restrictions should have moved to what was planned for the 28th of September.
The additional problem is anyone who has been watching the numbers will have noticed there's a high chance half the cases are health workers or in age care. These are controlled environments the government should be able to control. Although to be fair, the demarcation with federal and state responsibility is really less than acceptable.
The curfew makes no sense. Taking so long to open up regional areas made no sense.
There's also many low risk activities the majority of people could participate in but instead we're locked down. I don't mind being locked down but when activities that can be down (like two people from the one family going for a short drive together or a Maccas run) the over controlling approach just doesn't seem warranted.
Yesterday I drove past the local park and it looked as crowded as the Royal Melbourne Showgrounds. Cars parked on the road since the car park was full. So people are encouraged to gather in large groups but two people who are making no contact with anyone else can't.
The government needs to follow it's plan based on the data and look for ways to allow people to participate in low risk activities. Activities where people are unlikely to need to come into contact with other people. Yes there will always be rule breakers, but the majority of Victorians are good citizens doing what they feel is right for the community.
Saturday, September 19, 2020
How to end JobSeeker payment online.
For those on JobSeeker because they're income had dropped by at least 20 per cent, that now find their work has returned to normal, you probably need to cancel the JobSeeker payment. In the good old days that meant a trip to the Centrelink Office. That appears to have changed and you can now cancel JobSeeker online using the Centrelink site. To cancel JobSeeker you can do the following.
Log on to Centrelink via MyGov
Select Payments and Claims in the menu
Select My Payment (currently in the middle column)
Select Cancel my current payment
Tick the box for I accept the declaration
Click Submit
Click Yes to confirm
Print off (or print and save to PDF) and keep a record of the change.
It's good the government has help so many people during these difficult time.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Thursday, September 17, 2020
Missed Aldi's shopping basket offer, don't worry, you can get them at Bunnings.
Recently I saw an article promoting Aldi's shopping basket that was coming up on one of their specials days. You know the type of news article design to grab your attention like it's real news. Some people complaining they should be free and others saying what a great idea. Is any of that real?
I certainly don't know but the advertising/article worked on me. When I go into Aldi I only need a few items and a basket would enable me to empty the items at the checkout and put them straight back into the basket after they've been scanned. Much easier than juggling plastic bags
Now as for the people who said Aldi should provided shopping baskets for free like other supermarkets, the point is you can take the basket with you, it's yours. It folds up so it doesn't take up much room in the car.
Of I went to check out the local Aldi when the special came out and they were all gone. But you know what, that's OK. I'd already checked out the brand, who makes them, where they sell their products and I found that Bunnings had exactly the same folding basket in green (a colour I prefer), but not blue or with the Aldi logo (something that really didn't faze me).
When I got home I placed an order online with Bunning using their drive and collect service and picked the basket up on the way back from Coles.
The good thing is the price was the same as Aldi, although until recently Bunnings did have the shopping basket list for $12.99. Also finding the shopping basket on the Bunnings site can be a challenge so here's the link.
https://www.bunnings.com.au/optibox-34l-green-collapsible-crate-with-handle_p0208117
Now is this really something I'll use, or will it just be another impulse buy. Things are looking good because I've used it already to carry some of my own items. Did I mention I got it to carry things other that items I buy at the supermarket, didn't think so. There's often times I want to carry things from the garage into the house as well as when we're allowed to see family and friends. I'll let you know down the track if it's a good purchase or just another poor decision.
Kelvin
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Interesting article on school fees and whether schools can force parents to pay.
I thought I'd share the following article on what I'd consider to be non-compulsory school fees. Parents should keep in mind that schools may put parents under pressure to pay school fees that are not compulsory. I remember one school had a parent calling other parents to pay non-compulsory fees and the pressure can be considerable. There is also peer group pressure to pay the fees.
Remember it's your choice with some school fees. There schools generally won't let you know which fees aren't compulsory which also makes it harder for parents.
Kelvin Eldridge
Wednesday, September 09, 2020
Petrol price hike Melbourne - Unusual dual price hike.
I noticed around the 28th of August petrol prices in Melbourne had already started hiking to 147.9 cents per litre, then something unexpected happened. I started to see a second price group at 129.9 appear. Some petrol stations jumped to 147.9 whilst others hike their prices to 129.9.
At the moment there's really a lot of difference in prices around Melbourne from around 104.7 to 147.9. It really is worth shopping around when there's such a range of prices.
The price hike this month didn't wait to get down to the wholesale/gate price of 104.6 on the 28th of August. What I did notice was the petrol had dropped to around 108-110 cents per litre when the price hike started to occur.
A hike of around 40 cents per litre really is too much, but I can't help thinking the behaviour of the petrol industry long term will help to destroy their own industry. The more the petrol industry puts the public offside, the more likely people will more quickly move to electric cars. It won't be because they're cheaper, it will be because you don't have to put up with the silly petrol price cycle behaviour and ridiculous price hikes. Who knows, we may see one last push of low prices and no price hikes as the petrol industry gasps it's last breath, although sometime businesses in this situation charge more to keep their margins as they know, those who haven't moved probably won't for some time.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.PetrolPricesMelbourne.com.au
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Healthcare workers continue to make up a considerable percentage of coronavirus cases.
When we look at the current lockdown Victorians are faced with, you have to wonder if perhaps the government is locking down all of Metropolitan Melbourne (and stage 3 for regional Victoria) when a considerable proportion of cases are related to two groups. Healthcare workers and Aged Care.
These two groups are contained groups, or can be contained, and would often amount to 50% or more of new cases. This isn't meant to be a reflection of these groups, just of reflection of the situation for these groups.
If you take out these groups you can almost immediately halve the number of daily cases and then you have to wonder if the Victorian government isn't being too harsh on the general public. Today I read of two elderly ladies sitting on a park bench being threatened to be arrested by police.
I can't drive with my partner to get takeaway which poses no (or no additional) risk to anyone. I feel if I were to eat my takeaway in the car I could also get fined by police. As a compute support consultant I've spent hours trying to find if I can provide onsite support and still don't know. To me this is absurd for the government to treat people in this way. The government needs to be more creative in what people can do that is low risk. I understand they have a problem that people break the rules. Having only one person in a car means it's easier for police to enforce rules but they've enforcing rules for the sake of enforcing rules. The police look bad and the government looks bad. You then start creating anger in the people because when things don't make sense people know.
I wonder what activities other people think should be OK.
For example I think it should be OK to order takeaway food and eat the food in the car park. Subject to that it is only yourselves and you're not meeting anyone else, or connecting with anyone else.
I think it should be OK for two people from the same household to go shopping together. Yes there is additional risk of one of the two people getting infected, but chances are they'll take less time, split the tasks and reduce the overall time, thus negativing that increased risk. And if they go to different shops, there's no additional risk compared with one person going to two shops, or two people going to one shop each.
I think people should be allowed to go for drives, as long as they don't stop and leave their car. Again this is for people from the same household.
If you can do activities where you don't mix with other people you're not increasing the level of risk to yourself or others. With exercise, try going to the local park for a walk and see how many people you pass. That's more risk than driving in a car. In a recent bike ride to the local park I took a video and counted 82 people that I passed or passed me. To me that's a much greater risk than two people driving in a car to get takeaway together.
The problem is the government is putting laws into place that help the police enforce the laws, rather than laws that actually make people safer. Sometime doesn't feel right with this approach.
The following is a graph of the percentage of cases each day for the last three weeks for healthcare works.
During the last three weeks the average number of healthcare workers has been 37% of the total number of new cases each day. You can see in the graph on multiple occasions the percentage has exceeded 50%. These healthcare workers will infect their family and friends so if this group was considered an outbreak, you have to wonder what percentage of daily infections the group would make.
Very broad restrictions don't really make sense when a large proportion of cases is limited to sections of the population. The government needs to become for more nimble in its approach, otherwise it will crush the spirit out of the people.
The good thing is at the next election we get to vote. You can decide if you think the government's done a good job.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Update: 9/9/2020
Today basically Dan Andrews confirmed restrictions on Victorians aren't because they're' required for health issues, but to make policing easier. Now it makes sense. That insight has never to my knowledge been stated before. That means people are most likely getting fined not because there's a health issue, but for taking actions that make no difference to our safety and wellbeing, but to simplify police enforcement.
At his daily press conference on Tuesday, Mr Andrews admitted that the curfew makes “the job of the Victoria Police much easier”.
You have to now start asking the question "is the curfew even necessary?" Where's the science to justify the restriction. Brett Sutton stated it wasn't based on health authority advice.
Once people start to question one of the restrictions, you can understand why people start to question many or all of the restrictions.
Saturday, September 05, 2020
Scam/ Fraud calls claiming to be Telstra/NBN using www.helpme.net
Over the last day we're had a large increase in calls from scammers. The calls come from different numbers.
02 4049 8394
0426 264 438
0405 573 067
0486 096 857
0492 609 329
Given the number of calls I decided to let one of the calls proceed to see what the call was about. The first person gets you to test your speed of internet using www.speedtest.net.
My speed information was:
Download: 45.03 Mbps
Upload: 1.14 Mbps
Ping: 19 ms
NOTE: This scam call was about my speed on the NBN. I don't use the NBN. I use my mobile phone to access the internet so trying to speed up my NBN service, which I don't have, is never going to work.
Once they have that information they then pass you on to a more senior person. This is a testing phrase to find susceptible people. If you've kept on the line for this you're a person they are more likely to be able to scam.
The will tell you, you have an internet speed problem and they'll fix the problem.
At this point I decided to hang up and see what would happen. I immediately received a call back on the number 03 9530 7873.
They then get you to press the Windows key plus the R key to open the run command window.
Next you're asked to type in www.helpme.net.
At this point I entered the website address into Google's virus checking site and the site came up that www.helpme.net had one hit as being a Phishing site and two hits for suspicious.
At this point I felt continuing may be more of a risk than I was prepared to take. I know this caller is a scammer. Most likely they're trying to get me to use a site that will enable them to access my computer, but I wasn't prepared to continue due to the level of risk.
At this point I pointed out that Google's virus server has reports of them being a phishing site and they immediately hung up.
Hopefully now they'll remove the number from their calling database, but who knows.
Whilst these scammers are a problem, the real problem is our telephone companies who do nothing to stop this fraudulent activity. The telcos are all gain and no responsibility. Millions have been scammed out of people and telcos continue to allow this. Politicians continue to allow this. I don't see why the telcos and politicians continue to allow scamming to continue without doing anything. It makes no sense. Scammers and crooks will continue to steal. That's what they do. But why telcos and politicians assist or do nothing really is beyond belief.
Treat every call you receive from an unknown number as a potential scammer. Chances are you'll be more right than wrong.
I've set my phone to ring with one tone for calls from people I know and another tone for calls I don't know. For the calls I don't know I let them go to voice mail. I've found if it's important the person will leave a message and I can get back to them. Most of the time no one leaves a message.
Stay safe.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.OnlineConnections.com.au
Thursday, September 03, 2020
Bunnings Drive and Collect at Eltham video
The other day I did a drive and collect at Bunnings. Afterwards I thought it might interest people to see what the drive and collect at Bunnings was like and how long it took. The Bunnings drive and collect option is a good option if you wish to get your item fairly quickly and also have minimal contact with others.
Use this Bunnings Drive and Collect link to view the video.
Kelvin Eldridge
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Interactive self-assessment tool for coronavirus.
I was thinking of writing a tool to help guide people on what to do if they're concerned about having coronavirus. I then came across the Department of Health and Human Services interactive self-assessment tool and felt recommending their tool would be the best way to go.
You can find the interactive self-assessment tool at the following address.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-self-assessment
The government doesn't collect any information, although do keep in mind anything you enter into a form on the internet is often logged. Having said that I'm happy to use the self-assessment tool.
Give it a go if you're concerned about coronavirus. Even if you don't think you have coronavirus experiment with the tool so if you need it, you'll know what to do.
Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Under Victoria's stage 4 restrictions can people leave their home to pick up new pet.
One of the problems I've seen in the past with stage 3 restrictions was whether or not a person could pick up their new dog that was outside of Melbourne.
Keep in mind that getting a new dog isn't as simple as it once was, turning up to the local pet shop. People now wait in line for months, sometimes years until a pup of the breed they want is born. Then they have to wait until the dog is older enough to leave with them. This isn't a matter of weeks, but often months.
In the earlier case the person was able to pick up their dog outside of metropolitan Melbourne.
Find the information you need as a pet owner is not easy so when I saw an article from Agriculte Victoria I thought it might interest others.
Now how anyone would otherwise know or try to look for such an article I don't know. A link really should be provided from the Victoria government's main site for COVID-19. I've noticed different government departments doing things and that information is not linked back in any way. Another example was the recent need to have permits to go to work.
Even with this article if you're picking up a dog from outside of metropolitan Melbourne it's not specifically stated. The following are the important statements.
Yes. You can leave your home to collect a pet you purchased prior to the date this clarification was provided by government on 13 August 2020.
and
You may travel more than 5km from your home to collect a pet, but the travel cannot be unreasonable. As with other necessary goods, it must be the closest practical location.
As always things are left open to interpretation. A dog is not like a necessary good and when you buy a dog it's at a specific location. A dog isn't like toilet paper, which can be bought at any supermarket (subject to supplies). You enter into an agreement to purchase a dog from a specific breeder and it is where they are located. Of course the other option is to ask the breeder to deliver the dog since they are providing an allowed service, but see how that goes!
The best part though is once you get past all the crap, owning and loving your new pet will be worth all the effort.
Kelvin Eldridge
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Estimate of turnaround times for coronavirus test results in Victoria.
I was looking at the data I've accumulated on coronavirus cases in Victoria and decided to crosscheck two series of data. The cases each day in Victoria and the number of tests taken each day in Victoria. As it turns out, there was a very interesting pattern that reveals some useful information.
The following is a graph of the daily cases in Victoria.
The following is a graph of the number of daily tests in Victoria. Prior to the 3rd of August the number of tests were estimates, whereas since the 3rd it appears these numbers are been automated and are now far more accurate.
What was interesting was a very obvious double spike and large dip in the number of tests on the 9th, 10th and 11th of August. Due to the significant number of daily tests (that were nearly double the usual number of tests), interestingly the results could be seen three days later in the number of reported cases.
We can now quite easily see the relationship between when the tests were done and when the test results were known. Keep in mind the data is reported the next day.
We can see it takes roughly three days from when tests are done to when the number of cases is reported to the government. Although it is not known if the test result is reported to the person at the same time, or whether that might take another day or two.
Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map
NOTE: If you click on the graphs you'll be able to see the detail better.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
Map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria.
I thought it would be interesting to create a map of coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria. The reason is many aged care facilities have had large outbreaks, so areas may look like there's a large number of cases, but actually the cases are limited and contained to a single location, or that's what I thought.
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/outbreaks/
As it turns out things are much more complicated. In some areas such as Melton there's been a large number of cases, but no large outbreak, although do keep in mind that data I've gathered isn't complete. Cranbourne is similar.
In Kilsyth there's been a single large outbreak at the Kirkbrea aged care of 132, but according to postcode data as of today, there's only been 79 cases. That indicates a large number of workers from outside the area have been infected with the coronavirus.
In the Craigieburn postcode area there's been 833 cases. There's also been an outbreak at Arcare Craigieburn of 94 and Fresh Plus of 7. This would indicate a large number of residents contracting coronavirus.
It really is interesting to look at the data and see things you wouldn't otherwise see. To put to rest assumptions you've made that are often wrong,
I've often said our world is crazy because often we can only get a job quite a distance from where we live, when there's probably a suitable job somewhere close to us. Some of the coronavirus postcode figures such as Melton, Kilsyth and Craigieburn show just how large the number of people are who are travelling to work out of their areas. It's also one of the problems with the current lockdown strategy. Those who are working are the ones who are more than likely transmitting the virus and aren't locked down, yet those who aren't working and not seeing anyone are locked down. Not an easy issue to deal with.
Kelvin Eldridge
Victorian coronavirus outbreaks
Victorian coronavirus cases by postcode
Victorian coronavirus public exposure locations
5km Radius map
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Victoria - Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) - Can I drive to a place to exercise.
It can be quite difficult to find the actual legal documents when it comes to information from the Victorian government. One particularly important document is the Stay at Home Directions.
The following is the latest Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Areas) (No 12) which covers beginning at 11:59:00pm on 16 August 2020 and ending at 11:59:00pm on 13 September 2020.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/stay-home-directions-restricted-areas-no-12-doc
Whilst there's a lot of information written in the press, the problem is the more they write the more they introduce ambiguities. In fact, reading the Stay at Home Directions can be quite difficult, thus making sure you're doing the right thing can be hard. The real problem is whilst you may feel you're doing the right thing, if a police officer doesn't think you are, they can fine you. Yes you can take it to court, but then you risk an even greater fine and costs.
The reason for this post is to look at what is said about driving to exercise.
On page 4 in section 1AE the following is stated.
(1AE) Where a person leaves the premises under subclause (1)(d) (exercise), the person must not:
(a) leave their premises for a period longer than 1 hour; or
(b) use a vehicle, except where it is not reasonably practicable for the person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle.
Note: if a person needs to access an area within 5km of their premises for exercise, but can only do so due to mobility (such as a parent with a small child or a person with disability) or safety reasons (such as needing to exercise in an area with greater passive surveillance) by using a vehicle, then it would not be reasonably practicable for that person to undertake exercise without using a vehicle.
There are a number of reasons there can be considerable confusion around exercise.
1. First there's the word travel and we are allowed to travel up to 5km.
When we travel we think of using a form of transport. We travel overseas. Can't do that easily without a plane. I don't travel to the local park, I walk. When I go to the local shops I travel by car.
So using the word travel, or you cannot travel more than 5km, implies usage of some form of vehicle. Travel is thus a bad word to use in this situation and causes considerable confusion.
You'll notice in the legislation in the section shown above, the word travel is not used. The word travel however is used quite considerably on the government's coronavirus website when referring to exercise.
2. There's the distance. You're allowed to travel up to 5km from your home to exercise. That means a 10km round trip. Try doing that in the one hour that's allowed without using a vehicle. It simply doesn't make sense. The implication is the use of a vehicle would be allowed if you didn't read the legislation.
3. You can exercise with one other person outside of your household.
Initially this didn't make sense to me, but then someone suggested, as a women, they wouldn't feel comfortable exercising alone, so it makes sense for safety and could equally apply to males (unless of course you're applying one set of beliefs about women and another for men).
Now given that you can use your car to travel to exercise if there's a question of safety, and exercising alone could be a safety issue, then travelling by car in theory, could be allowed if exercising with another person.
The real problem is the legislation often appears to be written to capture more people rather than less. By leaving things unclear the law can be applied either way and it may not be in your favour. Thus instead of doing what we're allowed, or should be allowed to do, we don't do something because of fear.
The real question I have now is why are we allowed to exercise with another person outside of our household. If we can exercise with them, why then can't we visit them (assuming no other people involved).
That's where the real problem is. The government has allowed people to exercise with another person as an exception, but that inconsistency then makes us start to think, things don't make sense, and if the rules don't make sense, people start to ignore the rules. That's when we are all in trouble because the virus spreads.
Keep in mind people ARE getting fined for driving to a spot and then exercising, and police have issued a warning.
You can argue it's allowed by the legislation as you felt it was safer to drive to a place with more passive security rather than walking along secluded streets, but see how far that goes with the police officer.
This is another one of those crazy situations the government has created.
The real problem is us as people. Want can find a way for us to exercise that doesn't require us to drive or meet up with other people. The problem is when we want to do something we justify it. I want to walk at a particular park because it's a nicer park. There's a safety risk because between where I am and the park there's magpies that attack. It's safer to drive, so I do. Of course I could just walk along the footpath near where I live and still get the same amount of exercise.
We all have choices. I honestly don't know half the time what the heck the government is trying to get me to do or not do. To me they're doing a terrible job and the aged care cases of coronavirus is a stark reminder of how badly they're doing. However, all of that doesn't matter. My health is my concern and doing the best for my health is about doing the best I can. It has little to do with the government. That is the choice we all have.
It really is safer when it comes to coronavirus not to exercise with a friend. You really don't know who else they are seeing. Popular parks really are crowded and the number of people you'll pass is a risk. Is it really worth it?
Kelvin Eldridge
Update: 19/08/2020
A couple of hours after writing this post I noticed in the media others were suggesting the rule that you couldn't drive to where you wanted to exercise was being questioned. Subsequently the article below appeared. It appears the rule that you can't drive to exercise is being removed effective immediately, with the changes going through on Friday. A small but sensible adjustment.
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Change in active coronavirus cases in Victoria by Postcode.
The Victoria government has released two lots of data for coronavirus cases in Victoria. One for the 31st of July and the second for the 6th of August. I've created a map which shows both of these sets of data.
I thought I’d let you know I added the change in active
cases in the postcode map.
https://www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/
However one thing I really wanted to know was the new number of cases in each postcode. Unfortunately the Victorian government choose not to release that data. They only released the number of active cases in the second lot of data on the 6th of August.
All we can see is the change in active cases. Unfortunately that means we can't always tell if there's new cases for an area because new cases may be offset by active cases no longer being active (people are now negative for coronavirus). Having said that some data is better than no data.
What I personally am interested in is the number of cases and change of cases in my own area and the areas around me. The option to show the 20 Nearest postcode gives me that information on the map, plus also lists the information below the map making it easier to quickly see what change has occurred. You can select the 20 Nearest option in the menu or use the following link.
https://www.mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/postcode/mobile/
Remember you on a desktop or notebook computer you can simply hover your mouse over a marker to see further details. On a mobile device you need to click on a marker to see further details (this can also be done on a notebook or desktop computer).
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Regional areas Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton to watch for coronavirus.
When Victoria went into tighter restrictions for Metropolitan Melbourne the one area this didn't make sense for was Geelong. There probably wasn't enough cases to warrant Geelong also going into tighter restrictions, but the problem was the large number of cases in the western Melbourne area meant the potential exposure appeared to be quite high. Surely there's many people in the west who also work in Geelong!
Now a few weeks later we can see the Victorian regional areas where the numbers are increasing. If you look at the map I've created and zoom out, you'll see a couple of regional areas are having problems with coronavirus.
The areas of concern should be: Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Traralgon, Colac and possibly Shepparton.
All of these regional areas appear to be experiencing a considerable number of coronavirus cases and perhaps stage 4 restrictions should be considered for those regions for a short period of time.
It did appear that Colac themselves went into tighter restrictions and it is good to see the local areas taking acting and not waiting for the Victorian government.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
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