When I see the images of people lined up in Shepparton I can't help but think, what the heck are they thinking!
I can't help thinking, if people aren't infected already, they probably are now.
Surely this type of snake line of people under an enclosed roof must increase the risk of people getting infected. Yes masks reduce the risk by about half, and outside reduces the risk by a factor of 20 (but this isn't really completely outside since there's a cover), but even so there's many dozens of people. so even if you reduce the factor by 80, if there's 100 people there together you've probably just increase the chances of someone getting infected if there's an infect person there. Worse if there's more than one.
I can't help wonder why they simply didn't set up mobile testing stations. No crowds of people together. Yes long queues of cars but that could be handle in an appropriate setting.
I for one would not risk getting tested in such a location. I honestly can't believe so many people would go out and get tested in this way.
Keep in mind most of the people will be test as negative. But if they one or more people are positive, then all these people become close contacts to those positive people, as they may then have become infected waiting to be tested and that won't show up in their test.
If we look at the maths, the R rate for coronavirus is 1.1.-1.4. That is one person goes on to infect between 1.1. and 1.4 other people on average. The case in question was in Shepparton on the 29 and 30th of September, and it is now the 15th of October, say 16 days later. Based on the R rate we could expect between 4-155 cases. When the three positive cases were reported it was the date was on the 13th when we could have expected between 3 and 79 possible cases.
What may also keep these numbers lower is Shepparton would have a more sparse population than average. Melbourne has a population density of 500 people per square kilometre whereas Shepparton has a population density of 201 per square kilometre (information from Google query). You would think that may make a difference for the number of infections.
The Victorian government has taken a different approach using a three ring strategy to isolate people. The case, their contacts and their contacts, contacts. Using that approach should quickly reduce the chances of the infection getting out of control.
Yet I still can't help thinking bringing so many people together was most likely not a good idea. What were they thinking.
Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/
Update: 15/10/2020
I noticed on today's update from the government there's three drive-through sites available so credit goes to the government.
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