Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Melbourne petrol prices starting to hike. Unleaded petrol spotted at 151.9.

Last night I noticed two Woolworths Petrol stations in Preston had increased their petrol price for unleaded to 151.9. Today I checked and around five petrol stations had increased their prices to 151.9. All are Caltex or Caltex/Woolworths petrol stations.

The average gate price (think wholesale price) today is 126.3. In February on the 3rd, the gate price dropped to a low of 115.2. When unleaded retail prices started to hike around the 13th of February the gate price had increased to 118.4, At the moment we are seeing a gradual increase in the gate price and thus we can expect unleaded prices to also continue to increase.

The usual pattern for unleaded petrol price increases is for the retail price to hike to around 25 to 30 cents per litre above the gate price. Thus the next price hike is expected to be around 151.9 to 156.9, so 151.9 is at the low end. The price of 151.9 is a little unusual as most prices appear to end in 4.9 or 9.9. It's likely the price may quickly drop to 149.9 and then the discount cycle for the next three to four weeks will continue the price drop.

Since the first signs of the price hike have occurred on a Monday, and there is no period of peak usage like school holidays, it's likely the rest of the market will follow slowly with prices at most petrol stations being restored to the peak later in the week or over the weekend.

Watch the prices carefully and if you're using the 7 Eleven Fuel app, wait until prices have started to increase at 7 Eleven to lock in a low price for another week. Too early and you may have locked in a low price whilst there's still low prices around at other petrol stations.

Kelvin Eldridge
Petrol Prices Melbourne
https://www.PetrolPricesMelbourne.com.au

PS. Whilst it is possible the five petrol stations are a false indication of the price hike, the price hike is still expected soon as the retail price is now near or below the gate price for many petrol stations.

Update: 13/03/2019
The Caltex/Woolworths petrol stations have flipped and dropped their prices back to the current low prices today. The Caltex petrol stations that had hiked their price kept their prices high. Some additional BP services stations have increased their prices taking the number to around 10 petrol stations in the Melbourne area that have hiked their prices. This is still a relatively small number, but is indicative of prices still dropping in some areas whilst the price hike is just around the corner. In other words there's no rush to fill up our tanks, but we do have to watch the prices.

Update: 14/03/2019
The number of petrol stations that have hiked their prices has roughly doubled. Still not a large number though. The maximum price hike however has now moved to 153.9 cents per litre for unleaded.

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