Update to Victorian restrictions for coronavirus / COVID-19

Today's the day many of us have waited for, the easing of some restrictions. I think most of us could see nothing was going to change before Mother's Day as to do so, would encourage a very large number of people to go out and meet. Perhaps the best of ideas given the current situation. Yes, it's not popular but that's the way it needs to be.

Today the government has pulled back the restrictions slightly whilst still encouraging us to stay at home if we can. Today's announcement now lets us visit family and friends and have them visit us, up to five people.

For me the main restriction is the ability for family to see each other. I think this should have been possible earlier since most people I know are self isolating, so the risk has been very small. However, just because we're like that and many other people are, there's still a reasonable number of people who aren't and thus the restrictions.

You can find details of the Premiers announcement on the government's website.

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-from-the-premier-38/

One thing that has disturbed me a little today is Daniel Andrews has stated in Victoria "we've never had any restrictions on how far you can travel". I find that hard to believe. Police have booked at least one person for travelling to exercise with their mountain bike (later withdrawn). Feels like there's a disconnect between what the Premier has said, or not said, and what the police force have been doing. Not a big deal but at least we now know there's no restriction on how far we can travel.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-live-coverage-staggered-work-times-to-avoid-covid-crush/live-coverage/eb19ad9cf818eb8014a3a031deaf3b5a

I also found the information posted by Simon Love (State Political Reporter - Network 10) was very handy. I suspect this would have been the handout provided to reporters. If you click on the image your can view the information in detail and step through the pages.

https://twitter.com/SimoLove/status/1259653489942126592/photo/1

I am honestly still confused as to what people can and can't do.

Can a person sit in a State park and read a book?

What does gathering mean? Can the up to 10 people gathering in public mean they can have a BBQ?

Can I buy takeaway and sit in my car and eat it?

When I see police in NSW driving police cars through parks and telling a person reading a book by themselves to move on, it just concerns me what police will do and how they will interpret the rules. After all, try to fight a $1,600 fine in court if you think you're not doing anything wrong. It's simply not worth your time or the risk where you might even incur a greater court cost.

If you're doing something where you're not in contact with other people there shouldn't be an issue, but that doesn't mean you're allowed to do it.

The statement from the Premier saying there's never been a limit on how far you can travel is only obtained by reporters asking questions. I don't think that should be necessary.


Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Early cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) I thought were interesting and worth sharing.

I've been reading a number of articles which indicate earlier cases of coronavirus and thought the articles worth recording and sharing with others.

In the following article there were 10,000 athletes who visited Wuhan 20 days before the first case of coronavirus in Wuhan. Many of the athletes became sick. It would be interesting to test the athletes for antibodies to see if any had coronavirus.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/coronavirus-theory-virus-hit-europe-after-athletes-competed-in-wuhan/news-story/0eff8f20123f23aa445a085a97d8db9b

In the following article a French person had coronavirus in December 2019. The article states it was before the first official cases in Wuhan. Although the above article states the first Wuhan case was in November so there's inconsistency in articles. The French man had no connection to China.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/new-evidence-on-french-covid-19-patient-suggests-virus-may-not-have-started-in-china-c-1021446

If I find other such articles I'll update this post with links.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Melbourne Petrol Price Hike Alert - Unleaded petrol increasing to around 119.9.

Two nights ago I noticed the first signs of the petrol price hike. Some petrol stations had increased to 121.9 and others to 119.9. Today it looks like the new price is going to be around 119.9.

The current gate price (think wholesale price) is 89.9. The gate price has been slowly increasing since April 20, when the gate price was 80.5. The price hike for unleaded petrol is around 30 cents per litre which is lower than it has been for many months. Typical price hikes recently have been around 40 cents per litre or more. Perhaps it's because the price of unleaded petrol is low, a 40 cent price increase could really get some bad press.

It's now time to keep an eye on petrol prices and fill up when the price is still low. Also keep in mind the & Eleven Fuel app enables you to lock in 7 Eleven fuel prices for an additional week. Recently 7 Eleven changed their offer so you no longer need to have credit on your rewards card to take advantage of locking in the cheaper petrol prices.

I can't help thinking we're not going to see such low prices, perhaps ever in my lifetime. The coronavirus has certainly had a major impact in many ways.

Even less with a discount voucher.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.PetrolPricesMelbourne.com.au

Deeming Calculator updated with new deeming rates from May 1, 2020

The Deeming Calculator has now been updated to reflect the recent change in deeming rates.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.DeemingCalculator.com.au

Meadowglen Primary School and Cedar Meats Australia coronavirus further information.

Last night I read two articles about positive coronavirus cases. One was for the case at Meadowglen Primary School in Epping and the other for the cluster at Cedar Meats Australia in Brooklyn.

First a big thank you to the management of Cedar Meats Australia for letting the general public know the cluster is related to their workers. It really is good to know as it means we as the general public don't have to guess or worry. Knowledge gives us certainty. The government isn't giving us this knowledge so it really is appreciated when companies and individuals share their story. This is a pandemic. It is no one's fault if they get infected. None of us can help it if we get infected. That's just the way it is.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-04/coronavirus-victorian-cases-climb-cedar-meats-abattoir-brooklyn/12209776

What to me has been interesting is to see the Cedar Meats cluster is related to the Sunshine Hospital case that was reported on the April 29.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-29/coronavirus-patient-sunshine-hospital-and-melbourne-childcare/12198054

The worker from Cedar Meats went into hospital for surgery on Thursday the 23rd of April due to a workplace accident and later developed a cough on the weekend of the 25/26. Four coworkers later tested positive for COVID-19. In all there's no been 43 workers from Cedar Meats to test positive for COVID-19.

Given the Victorian State government is pushing hard to test 100,000 people over two weeks, you have to wonder why they don't test people from companies where there's been more than one person infected.

The second is the retired music school teacher who went into the school to record some videos for online teaching.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-03/coronavirus-victorian-government-to-shut-down-school/12209794

I have to thank The Age and Keith Campbell, the teacher on this occasion, for providing a more complete picture of what happened.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pub-outbreak-leaves-primary-school-all-shook-up-20200504-p54pqa.html

Why this is interesting it appears Keith was infected at the Eagle bar (Eaglemont Cellars) between the 15th and 17th of March where Keith and his daughter performed as musicians.

Keith's daughter who was in the band with Keith got infected and was tested on the 31st of March and subsequently returned a positive result. Keith's granddaughter who is 9 was also infected and became very ill.

Keith tried three times to be tested but at that time his symptoms weren't considered bad enough to be tested.

The Eaglemont Cellars and Wine Bar have posted a reasonable amount of information relating to the timeline from their perspective on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/EaglemontCellars/posts/2605206636272950?__tn__=K-R

The following article was published about the cluster.

https://www.gold1043.com.au/lifestyle/real-estate-finance/five-cases-of-positive-coronavirus-tests-linked-to-melbourne-wine-bar/

Articles report it is felt the original infections occurred on the 14th of March when there was a birthday party held and there were a number of overseas guests from the UK. I could not find any solid confirmation of the original source being identified. Reportedly 30 cases have now been linked to the pub.

What is good from this article is a couple of things.

1. Testing has now been extended so someone like Keith could be tested and know if they have the virus.

2. Keith has provided an example of his granddaughter who contracted the virus and became seriously ill. This is very important as far too many people believe young people can't be infect or infect others.

3. Keith's test appears to be a false positive due to remnants of the virus in his system. It is important to keep in mind test results can end up being a false positive. If this is the case the school was closed for no reason. It is of course better to be safe than sorry.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Update: 6/5/2020
According to the following article the first case connected with Cedar Meats was on the 2nd of April. The worker had not been at work for four weeks. The second and third cases nearly three weeks later, one being the person who went to Sunshine Hospital.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-abattoir-cluster-grows-but-is-it-all-bad-news-20200505-p54q1r.html

Another four cases connected to the Cedar Meats cluster.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-06/coronavirus-cases-in-victoria-rise-including-meatworks-cluster/12218540

Sour Cream & Onion Stacked Chips - Pringles vs Aldi vs Woolworths vs Coles

My first experience with stacked chips was I just had to try out the new Pringles. So different and I wasn't disappointed. It's been a long time since I've had stacked chips (times and interest changes), but then I thought, why not compare the stacked chips from Aldi, Coles, Woolworths and Pringles.

How does Pringles stack up to the others?

The flavour of choice - Sour Cream & Onion stacked chips.

The test team - 7 family members.

Each family member had a pen and sheet of paper and asked to give their feedback on the various stacked chips labelled A, B, C and D. Only I knew which was the Pringles, but I paid no attention to the others.

What was their favourite?

Were there any surprises?

The results

Family member 1 - Me
A - Slightly chewy
B - Slightly light in taste
C - Smaller
D - Nothing stood out
Overall - To me all pretty much the same.

Family member 2
A - Good
B - Better than good
C - Not as good
D - The best
Overall D the best and C the worst.

Family member 3
A - Little salty
B - Good
C - Not salty
D - Not bad. Want more
Overall - D was their favourite

Family member 4
A - More salty
B - Subtle
C - Bland, smaller yellow biscuit
D - Sour cream and flavour, colour.
Overall - D was the favourite and C was their least favourite

Family member 5
A - Thought to be Aldi. Third choice.
B - Strong flavour. Second choice
C - Fourth choice
D - Strong flavour. First choice
Overall - D first choice, C last choice

Family member 6
A - First
B - Third
C - Second
D - First
Overall D was the first choice.

Family member 7
A - Fourth
B - Second
C - Third
D - First choice
Overall - D was the first choice.

Overall D was the first choice for everyone who had a preference. Interestingly a couple of people stated C was their least favourite.

Which chips were which?

A = Aldi - Sprinters Snack Stack Stacked Chips, Sour Cream & Onion, 160g - $1.59
B - Coles - Sour Cream & Onion Stacked Chips, 160g - $1.80
C - Pringles, Sour Cream & Onion, 134g - $4 (on special for $3)
D - Woolworths - Sour Cream & Onion Flavoured Stacked Chips, 160g - $1.80

When everyone was told the Pringles stacked chip was C, there was a surprising outcry of no way. Some saying that was my worst. Quite a few people were shocked. I was quite surprised by the response.

Summary

Whilst this taste test is by no means scientific, from out family members' testing of the stacked chips, the real surprise was the Pringles was the least preferred. The favourite by all six who had a preference was D, which was the Woolworths stacked chip.

Given Pringles costs more than twice as much as the other brands, and is around 16% smaller, the Pringles stacked chips did not stack up well. The Woolworths was the top of the stack.

I hope you've enjoyed the Sour Cream & Onion flavoured stacked chips taste test. Next time perhaps try the Woolworths brand.

I should add this taste test is not sponsored by anyone other than myself. And yes I did get to finish off what was left over. Something I perhaps shouldn't have done.

Kelvin Eldridge

Aldi Titan bar versus Mars bar.

In this test two of us had half an Aldi Titan bar and half a Mars bar.

Person 1 - Blind test
Prefers Titan to Mars
Titan looks better
Seems like Titan has more caramel

Person 2 - Me, knew the products
Both very similar
Titan has a slightly grainy texture but only slight.
Mars a little more gooey
Happy with either
Both sickly sweet

Price information
Aldi Titan bar 60g - 69 cents
Mars bar from Coles 53g - $2, half price special $1

Overall, since the Aldi Titan bar was preferred by one person and equal with the Mars bar for the other person, the Aldi Titan bar could easily be purchased instead of the Mars bar. From a price point of view the Aldi Titan bar is nearly a third of the normal retail price of the Mars bar from Coles and the Mars bar is actually smaller at 53g versus 69g.

Based on this information the Aldi Titan bar is by far the clear winner.

Kelvin Eldridge

Nathan Cleary not fined, but the five women were fined.

I thought it was interesting to read that Nathan Cleary was not fined recently for a gathering at his home, whereas the five women concerned were fined.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-investigating-after-new-videos-of-nathan-cleary-emerge-phil-gould-reacts/news-story/96b4fee28b60e79a243e8db5a136a2b1

The reason given by police was that house belonged to Nathan Cleary. The legislation in Victoria, if I read it correctly, would have meant Nathan Cleary would have been fined if this occurred in Victoria. I decided to read the legislation to see how the legislation in NSW and Victoria differ.

You can find NSW's legislation at the following location.

Public Health (COVID-19 Restrictions on Gathering and Movement) Order 2020

You can find Victoria's legislation as the following location.

Stay at Home Directions (No 4)

Where the legislation differs for this situation is the legislation for Victoria clearly puts the responsibility for not letting people into their home on the resident, whereas for NSW, there's no such restriction. You can find the relevant section in the Stay at Home Directions (No 4) in Part 4, Section 11, Point 3. "During the stay at home period, a person must not permit another person to enter the premises as which they ordinarily reside, unless:", and the activity Nathan Clearly participated in wouldn't have come under the list of exemptions.

I find the differences between the laws interesting as I would not have thought that would be the case. Yes differences for some localisation, but not in overall principle. This really does show that if you're gaining information from the media, you need to pay particular attention to which state the story is about.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

NOTE: This post is not legal advice. It is simply my observation as a non-legal person reading the information provided by the government.

Car Versus Public Transport cost comparison has moved.

About a year ago I wrote the Car Versus Public Transport calculator to enable people to easily compare the cost of using a car versus the cost of taking public transport.

For a couple of reasons I've decided to merge the Car Versus Public Transport with the Car Running Cost Calculator. By merging the two calculators it will make it easier for people to find the Car Versus Public Transport calculator. In  addition, since it's necessary to first work out how much it costs per kilometre to use your car, the Car Running Cost Calculator is now more easily accessed from the Car Versus Public Transport calculator.

Kelvin Eldridge
Car Versus Public Transport cost

New coronavirus cases in Victorian Local Government Areas (LGA) - 24/04/2020 - 30/04/2020

The following are the new coronavirus cases in Victoria listed by Local Government Area. Numbers are correct at 11:59pm on the prior day but could change based on subsequent investigation. All figures are as per the Victorian Government's website.

Reported on Thursday 30/04/2020

2 BOROONDARA
1 HOBSONS BAY
1 MELBOURNE
1 MELTON
1 WYNDHAM

Reported on Wednesday 29/04/2020

1 KINGSTON
1 WELLINGTON
1 WHITEHORSE

Reported on Tuesday 28/04/2020

1 BOROONDARA  

1 MOIRA  

1 YARRA  

Reported in Monday 27/04/2020

1 Melton 

1 Port Phillip 

Reported in Sunday 26/04/2020

1 Melton  

1 Stonnington  

Reported in Saturday 25/04/2020

1 Melbourne  

1 Stonnington  

1 Wyndham  

Reported in Friday 24/04/2020

1 Banyule

1 Brimbank  

1 Darebin  

1 Glenelg  

1 Kingston  

1 Moreland  

In the past 7 days the following Local Government Areas have reported cases of coronavirus.

1 Banyule 

1 Brimbank 

1 Darebin 

1 Glenelg  

1 Hobsons Bay 

1 Moreland 

1 Port Phillip 

1 Wellington 

1 Whitehorse 

1 Wyndham 

1 Yarra 

2 Kingston 

2 Melbourne 

2 Stonnington 

3 Boroondara 

3 Melton 

In the past 7 days the following Local Government Areas have no reported cases of coronavirus.

Ararat 

Ballarat 

Bass Coast 

Baw Baw 

Bayside 

Benalla 

Campaspe 

Cardinia 

Casey 

Central Goldfields 

Corangamite 

East Gippsland 

Frankston 

Gannawarra 

Glen Eira 

Golden Plains 

Greater Bendigo 

Greater Dandenong 

Greater Geelong 

Greater Shepparton 

Hepburn 

Horsham 

Hume 

Knox 

Latrobe 

Loddon 

Macedon Ranges 

Manningham 

Mansfield 

Maribyrnong 

Maroondah 

Mildura 

Mitchell 

Moira 

Monash 

Moonee Valley 

Moorabool 

Mornington Peninsula 

Mount Alexander 

Moyne 

Murrindindi 

Nillumbik 

Northern Grampians 

South Gippsland 

Southern Grampians 

Strathbogie 

Surf Coast 

Swan Hill 

Wangaratta 

Warrnambool 

West Wimmera 

Whittlesea 

Wodonga 

Yarra Ranges 

Yarriambiack 

Kelvin Eldridge

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Notes: 

It should be noted this is the residential address when the case was notified and not necessarily the current residential address or the location where the infection occurred. Cases with an overseas address have not been included. Cases with an interstate address are not included. Cases with an unknown address are not included. It is felt these will be resolved and included later in the relevant location.

Travel ban from Italy may have changed the course of the coronavirus in Australia.

At the time and now also looking back, I must admit I was quite annoyed the government didn't move quickly on the travel ban from Italy. It almost felt like the ban was being delayed due to the Melbourne 2020 Grand Prix. Whether it was or not will only be known by the government but perhaps in years to come we may find out.

Thank goodness a team member was infected otherwise the Melbourne Grand Prix would have gone ahead and who knows what level of infection would have occurred.

I think this is where the government got it wrong. If the government used its modelling now and went back and made the decision to ban travel from Italy and implement tighter quarantine measures it would be interesting to see how much the curve would have been reduced. It may even be that we'd have eliminated the virus now.

The huge impact of the Ruby Princess on NSW would likely not have occurred if the bans were started earlier. With an extra week of travel bans the passengers would have no left the ship in such an uncontrolled manner.

The following article appeared on the 11th of March 2020.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/formula-one-narrowly-escapes-australian-travel-ban-on-italy-20200311-p54918.html

I remember it was frustrating at the time. Add that Scott Morrison was still talking about attending his beloved Sharks NRL match, it appeared he was either keeping up appearances for Australians, or just didn't get it at that stage.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/formula-one-narrowly-escapes-australian-travel-ban-on-italy-20200311-p54918.html

Thankfully that changed and the government caught up to where they needed to be.

The quarantining of everyone coming into Australia into hotels is where we needed to get to. Asking people to self-isolate just doesn't work because of the nature of a portion of the people. I couldn't help feeling that one thing the government could have done was to compensate people for having their liberty taken away from them. It was necessary for them to be quarantined but it's almost like they were doing the community services. They'd done nothing wrong.

The one thing I feel the government is still doing wrong is not providing the valuable raw data that lets us know what is really going on. Victoria did this for a while. We were informed where infected people had been and we could make sure this had no impact on us. Then all of a sudden the Victorian government stopped providing the information. That to me means something is being hidden from all of us.

Could the governments of Australia do better. Absolutely. However in my mind they've done very well and I'm thankful for the efforts. I'm thankful for those who have been quarantined in hotels. I'm thankful for the many people around me who really are making a considerable effort to self isolate and social distance.

Thank you.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Strange coincidences. Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson.

Ever thought a coincidence you just discovered was so amazing you just had to share it? OK. I thought I'd share a couple of recent coincidences that came about because of the coronavirus.

The first was I was trying to work out the timeline for when Richard Wilkins was infected with the coronavirus. The following is the timelines I could ascertain from the media and other online sources.

Rita Wilson live at Sydney Opera House
Saturday 7 March from 8pm
Richard Wilkins meets Rita after the performance.

Rita attended Channel Nine Sydney studio on Monday 9 March.

Monday 16 March 7 News article
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/richard-wilkins-tests-positive-to-covid-19-c-746279
Richard Wilkins tests positive

Monday 23 March - Richard Wilkins Facebook account
Day 12 of quarantine still positive. - Indicates self quarantined on possibly Friday 13 March
Tested positive 9 days ago - Indicates tested positive result Monday 16 March as per news article.

Now for those who don't know, Rita Wilson is Tom Hanks wife.

The coincidence. Does anyone recall the name Tom Hanks character (Chuck Norland) gave to his companion, a volleyball, in the 2000 movie, Cast Away.

Yes. Tom Hanks volleyball companion was called Wilson.

The name reportedly came about because the volleyball was made by Wilson Sporting Goods.

I couldn't help feeling there may have been a little chuckle about Tom Hanks wife's last name also being Wilson.

As a final point, if you watch a video of Tom Hanks throwing the volleyball, you'll notice his fingers are quite wide apart. The fingers which become Wilson's hair are close together.

More recently I was saying the word influencer and influenza and couldn't help feeling with my rather slack pronunciation, the two words sound very, very similar. Even their meanings are close, one who spreads the word and one that spreads.

If there's such a thing as a good outcome with the coronavirus, social distancing is affecting the number of laboratory counts of influenza, which as the following article states, is down from 11,159 in March 2019 to 5,435 in March 2020, and that can only be a good thing.

https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6715247/cold-coughs-flu-and-fever-are-tracking-down-with-increased-social-distancing/

I thought I'd share in case others had experienced such coincidences and thought they were worth sharing.

Kelvin Eldridge

Is a vaccine the only way out with the coronavirus?

Over the past weeks I've read of many things such as herd immunity, flattening the curve, etc, but the one thing I keep reading is the only way out with the coronavirus is for a vaccine to be developed.

I can't help feeling this may be wrong. Why? Because I think back to the recent past. Where's SARS now? Where's the Swine Flu? Where's the Aussie Flu? They're gone. Once the virus runs it's course it's gone. Perhaps they evolve, but basically from the general populations point of view they're gone.

Whilst we did move slower at closing the borders than I feel we should have, and perhaps slower at isolating people returning from overseas instead of relying on people to self isolate at home (which we know human nature means some won't), but overall I feel we've got there.

We need to social distance as a community because there's pockets in our community where the infection exists and there's no way to know where those pockets are until an outbreak occurs.

In time however, if we persist with social distancing and isolation strategies I'm hopeful the virus will die out. Then we need to keep the borders closed until the virus dies out overseas as well.

The one thing I feel that is missing is useful data that lets us know where the public exposure locations are happening right now, each day as the authorities find out. Then we can see if we've been exposed in any of those locations and minimise our chances of infecting others.

Yes the government is providing data daily, but it's what I'd call useless data. It's data that's counting things that's happened, not data that helps us.

Each day in Victoria there's now a relatively small number of new cases of coronavirus. Each of those cases is a person who has recently visited a number of places. All each state government needs to do is to make that raw data available and others will present the data in a form that's useful to the general public. Each day in each state there's potentially only a few dozen to perhaps the low hundreds of data points. If we have access to that data we can then use applications that track where we've been to see if we were at or near any of the public exposure locations. We could at the simplest level just check an online map each day.

My real concern is governments are going to look at technology to track all of us, and frankly that's not the type of data I'd be confident they'd use in ways we'd be happy with. I know where I've been, my car's dashcam lets me know and I'm sure we can all find apps to track our location without providing the data to large organisations that want to mine that data for other reasons. All I need to know is the public exposure locations and I have what I need for myself, my family and my friends. That means everyone who wishes to, would have what they need too.

If I felt I'd been in a public exposure location I'd closely monitor my health for anything unexpected. I'd self isolate (within 5 days there's 95% certainty you've not been infected) and I'm sure the majority of other people would as well.

Right now we have no real data. When we walk out on the street, go to the shops, go to work, we don't know anything about who has been infected around us. What shops they've visited, what trains or buses they've taken, nothing. This creates fear and uncertainty and that brings out the worst in people.

At the moment the state governments are not sharing the public exposure location data. That's a pity. Yet really there's also one other group that could change that tomorrow. Those who are infected. They could easily share the locations they've visited.

Unless we have data really the only thing we can do is assume everywhere is a risk. Every shop, every food establishment, every petrol station. Yet if you think about it, that's absurd. There's only a few dozen or less new cases in each state each day. That's a fairly small number of public exposure locations each day and knowing those locations, would give everyone peace of mind.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

NOTE: The ideas and thoughts in this post are mine alone and should not be taken as advice or guidance.

Dettol as a hand sanitiser for novel coronavirus COVID-19

I was chatting to a friend and he mentioned his wife made him up some hand sanitiser. I'd previously noted people using disinfectants and thought I'd share what I knew, as he knew less.

With a few questions I determined his wife had made up his hand sanitiser using Dettol.

In terms of Dettol being effective against the novel coronavirus they makers can’t yet say because the strain of coronavirus virus is so new.

The Dettol site says it should be based on past experience with the group of viruses called coronavirus, but can’t yet say without testing for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

At this point in time I’d stick with the known recommendation of using an alcohol based sanitiser just to err on the side of caution.

https://www.dettol.co.uk/about-us/understanding-coronavirus/

The following article explains why the Dettol packaging can refer to coronavirus before the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

https://www.aap.com.au/dettol-effective-against-known-strains-not-2019-novel-coronavirus/

The World Health Organisation has issued a publication for location production of "handrub", although the recipe is for large quantities.

https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

There you go, now you know what I know. Hope it helps in some way.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Red light speed camera at St Kilda Road and Union Street. A Whirlpool user's question.

I read a person's question on Whirlpool where they went through a red light (where there's a red light camera) and was wondering if they would be getting booked.

https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/3lyzj649

As I understand the person's situation is they were"

• Travelling southbound in the service road on St Kilda Road where it crosses Union Road.
• There's a speed camera for the service road and another for the main road.
• The person was travelling under the speed limit but sped up once they realised the light was changing to amber. By speeding up they increased their speed to around 55-57km/h so under the speed limit.
• The traffic light changed to amber when they were 5-10 metres from the stop line.
• They think the back half of their car was going through the intersection when it turned red.
• The person did a U-turn to the main road section of St Kilda Road, did a left turn from the main road crossing the service lane.

There's a couple of points of interest here.

First, if the person really was 5-10m from the stop line could they have been able to stop in time before entering the intersection. There's an additional 8m after the stop line before the intersection. At 5-10m if they were travelling say 50km/h their stopping distance would have been 15m and so they would have been over the stop line but it would have been quite close to decide.

If they continued at 50km/h they would have travelled 55 metres in four seconds, (the timing for the amber light), plus another 6.9 metres for the roughly half second allowed once the light changes to red. In other words there was plenty of time to continue at their current speed and not get booked.

If you can stop before the stop line you should. If you think you'll go over the stop line but not into the intersection (over the pedestrian crossing for example) and can stop you should. If you don't think your can fully enter the intersection with all of your car before the light turns red then you should stop or there's a high probability you'll get caught by the red light camera. Only keep going if it's not safe to stop, in which case there's sufficient time allowed in the amber and red light timing of the traffic signals.

Remember, with the sensors one is often after the stop line so to be clear of the sensor you need to have all of your car past the sensor before the light has turned red. Yes there is about half a second allowance in the red phase, but this is such a short amount of time. Think of this as being about the length of the car.

Keep mind if you're travelling slower due to turning or traffic, you cover less distance. Many people get booked because they're travelling slowly. When you're travelling slowly keep in mind it takes less time to stop.

People often slow down as they approach speed cameras through fear of getting booked. This actually can increase their chances of getting fined because at a slower speed, they can take longer to pass over the sensor.

Most of us can't estimate distance well. If we could life would be much easier. Without some aid on the road we're all likely to continue to misjudge the distance and time with the subsequent fine for misjudging things.

For example, this person thought they were 5-10 metres from the stop line. They also said the back of their car was probably still in the intersection when the light went red. From the stop line to the traffic lights on the other side of the intersection is approximately 25-28 metres.  If he was 10 metres before the stop line plus say 2 metres from the front of his car to where he's sitting, that's around 37-40 metres. The amber shows for 4 seconds and at 50km/h he would have travelled 55 metres. That is he would have been past the traffic lights and not been able to see them. That means he was probably further before the stop line than he thought and mostly likely had sufficient time to stop but decided to speed up instead.

Now as for the U-turn and turning left from the main road across the service lane, there's a no left turn sign at the intersection so that was breaking the law.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.SpeedCameraLocations.com.au

Coronavirus social distancing rules: Can I go and visit a family member? Directions - Stay At Home

I'm starting to get quite concerned by our state becoming a "police state". Yes we have to social distance, yes we have to stop the coronavirus from spreading, but I'm sure most of us have seen on the news people being booked for what none of us would think is fair. Those that don't get their story on the media end up paying. Those that get airtime have their fine withdrawn.

Learner drive taking a lesson

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-fines-spark-warning-to-police-from-lawyers/12123344

Mountain bike rider going out to exercise

https://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/article/2020/04/09/mountain-bikers-1600-fine-highlights-uncertainty-around-coronavirus-restrictions

Man washing his car at a car wash

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/no-fines-for-people-in-shops-as-car-wash-penalty-revoked-20200410-p54ix7.html

Our government needs to make sure they don't push too far or their hard work to date will start unravelling. People aren't stupid. If the government of Queensland can get the population of the state out to vote with no noticeable impact on the level of virus infections, people will start questioning the government if they become too heavy handed. As population we are all doing our best in difficult times.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1_DcJvl566YOBOx-QOUJdTV-u_cSi6r9mf5wV3RRS3iQ

If by running the council elections in Queensland there was the actual real possibility of mass spreading of the virus this would have occurred within 14 days of the election. The table shows 12 days and there rate of infections has actually dropped. There isn't a noticeable change in infections resulting from millions of people going out to vote.

As to the question of, "Can I go and visit a family member?", this wasn't clear so I decided to see what I could find. The ABC's website provides the answer which hopefully gives people peace-of-mind. Then if the police pull you over you can provide the information provided by the Prime Minister and clarified by the ABC. Although who really knows what each state and individual police force, or even individual police officer decide on how to implement the law. If you get fined going to court is likely to be costly and cost result in even more expense and possibly jail time. That's not the type of threat we should be living our lives under.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/scott-morrison-coronavirus-covid19-two-person-rule-explained/12101212

In particular the statement in the section titled, "Can I go and visit a family member?"

A family split across two houses can meet, so you can go and visit your parents or a sibling — although common sense probably ought to be used, and the usual social-distancing protocols should also be employed.

Unfortunately the world is a little crazy at the moment. Hopefully things will calm down.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Update: 11/04/2020
After reading the news article on the man washing his car in a car wash at 1 am in the morning, I couldn't help feel that recording any interaction with the police at this time is a wise idea.

Update: 12/04/2020
In terms of "Can I go and visit a family member", the following is a link to the Victorian Government's stay at home direction. There's no mention of visiting parents or a sibling. This really does show how the Federal Government is saying one thing, the ABC is supposedly clarifying things for us, but in the end, we really have no clue. The police can have a field day fining people because the gotcha is "ignorance of the law is no excuse".
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/direction-stay-home-no3-signed
What appears to be important here is Part 4, Section 11, Point 3. You must not let others into your home except for the reasons listed. Family and siblings is not listed. The answer then is no.

Update: 15/04/2020
The Directions - Stay At Home No 3 expired on the 13th of April. It took some time to locate the new directions which can be found on this page.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/state-emergency

The new Directions - Stay At Home No 4 now expire on the 11th of May.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202004/b4%20-%20stay%20at%20home%20direction%20%28no%204%29%20%28signed%29.pdf

The BBC headline - Are coronavirus tests flawed?

I started to think with people being isolated (thousands in hotels), and some of those people being doctors and possibly other medical staff, why can't they test to see if these people are positive or not after perhaps 3-5 days. Then if people prove to be negative they can go on to assist others.

I can't be sure, but it probably all revolves around the word prove.

I've been trying to find articles that would let me know the minimum time it takes for a person with the coronavirus to test positive. I really haven't found anything that I'd call conclusive, if anything, I've found more articles indicating problems with tests or testing. The headline for the following article was Are coronavirus tests flawed?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763

From reading the article I realised the following:

Coronavirus is a respiratory virus. That means our breathing system.

The tests currently performed using a swab is taken at the back of the throat and nasal passage. If it's too early in the person's infection the same may not be sufficient.

If the person isn't coughing this may reduce the amount of sample in the area being tested.

The person doing the testing may not be sampling sufficiently.

No test is 100% perfect

This following article and particularly at the end where they state the structure of testing is the tests are 95% specific and 95% sensitive helps us to understand that out of 100 people, 5 people may be positive for coronavirus even though they test negative. When we're talking about thousands,  tens of thousand of tests and possibly hundreds of thousands of test, that's potentially tens of thousand of tests not picking up a person is actually positive for coronavirus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/03/26/negative-coronavirus-test-result-doesnt-always-mean-you-arent-infected/

As I read more I start to understand the science is not perfect and for this reason we need to be more cautious, to be isolated longer to be more confident, social distance further, to err on the side of caution for our own good.

Kelvin Eldridge

Australian coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers.

Whilst the data I'm recording relating to coronavirus is for Victoria, sometimes it's good to be able to see the information for all of Australia. I decided to look for this information and found the following government site.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

For me the main number I'm looking for is the locally acquired cases where there's been no direct link to someone coming into the country or a contact of a person coming into the country.

Currently for Australia that figure is around 9.3% of cases.

Had the government moved more quickly to close our borders and isolate those coming into Australia, the total number I suspect would be have been less. I tend to think in the scheme of things that's an easier task. Not easy, but easier. This has been done thank goodness. Before this too many people coming into the country infected their contacts and others. The contacts are easier to identify, but not the others. Others that they wouldn't know they connected with.

Ultimately had the government moved more quickly the local community infection should have been lower, or in an ideal world almost nonexistent, but it's impossible to lock down everything.

To me it's the locally acquired cases that are important. The government talks about flattening the curve but this is relatively easy once the borders are closed and those coming in are in mandatory isolated. The curve will flatten, however the figure to watch is the locally acquired cases.

If the locally acquired cases grow what we'll see is the curve will naturally start to flatten fairly quickly, but then the curve will start to increase again. That is what we really have to watch.

It's hard to imagine the internal lock down, social distancing and what some people would call "the police state" situation is necessary, but if those locally acquired cases increase, that's the probably the main option to slow the curve down.

What's missing for us who like to know more is to know who is included in the locally acquired cases where the contact is not identified. For example do doctors and nurses who are dealing with multiple cases fall into this category? It would be nice to have more information. The more information we have the better decisions we can make.

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Disinfecting for the coronavirus

We have a commercial grade disinfectant product that can be used to disinfect benches, door handles, etc. I started to wonder whether or not this disinfectant product was really suitable for coronavirus. I have a science degree (haven't used it) so keep in mind I'm not an expert of any type.

When I went to the website for the product I was actually quite surprised. The product made no mention of being effective at disinfecting against viruses. Yes bacteria and pathogens, but no mention of any of the common virus (such as influenza) so effectively using the product I feel is a waste of time, at least for the coronavirus.

It's important that you just don't go out and purchase products thinking they're helping. Make sure the information on the packaging mentions viruses or you could just be wasting your money or worse, not protecting your family even though you're making the effort.

I found this page which I thought was useful. I'd be reluctant to use bleach (call me a chicken) but I did learn not to use bleach and other household products that are acidic. Phew. Didn't know that.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK214356/

Basically the page is telling us to use an alcohol based product.

I also found what the airlines were doing quite interesting. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-26/airlines-unleash-herpes-disinfectant-for-virus-tainted-planes

Certainly you can see they're making the extra effort to deep clean. Now I do understand the plane uses operating theatre grade filters to filter the air, but a plane isn't an operating theatre with a single patient. There's lots of moving people that are around you and going past you and they're breathing and they can get close. The main take from the article however is the type of products they're using.

All I did really was since I had some doubt about the product, was to  perform a search on the product, found the manufacturers website, read the information and there was no mention of the product being suitable for viruses. Keep in mind there may be restrictions on companies by the government in putting such claims on the products, such as extensive testing that isn't worth the time and resources for the company.

Kelvin Eldridge

www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

What proportion of people infected with the coronavirus do not show symptoms?

One of the main problems with the coronavirus is when people first get infected it takes a while before the symptoms show, but a bigger problem is those who are infected with the coronavirus but do not appear to show any symptoms, which is known as asymptomatic.

The following article shares quite a bit of information and through various articles we can estimate those infected but not showing symptoms could be from 17.9% up to 50%. That's one fifth to half of all infected people.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/covid-19-coronavirus-without-symptoms-still-contagious/12119942

That's why it's very important for people to self isolate for 14 days, although it does make you wonder how many of the people who self isolate really fully self isolate for the 14 days. In the first instance they had to get home somehow if they were travelling. Then if like the rest of us, you come home with nothing in the pantry or fridge, I'd suspect many picked up supplies. It's just the nature of people.

As an example the below article it states there around 100 Australian doctors and dentists on a cruise.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-covid-19-australian-doctors-dentists-stuck-cruise-ship-coast-chile

According to the following article there were a group of 120 medical professionals.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/coronavirus-covid-19-cruise-ship-doctors-angry-over-quarantine/12099604

Now this is where we should forget these are medical people and just say people. There were 77 people who were taken to a hotel for isolation. When police later returned 33 had left the hotel, or roughly 43%.

That's just what people do. Were they infected, we don't know. Was there a risk, probably.

This however does show us that if a third to a half of the people are asymptomatic it's important for them to full self isolate.

Although I do wonder why people in this situation can't be tested after a number of days and if they are not infected, continue on their way. Possibly because there's a shortage of test kits.

I thought the following was an interesting example of people lying about their symptoms so they could see their doctor face-to-face. However many people who say they don't have symptoms actually do! That would certainly affect the statistics if people are lying either intentionally, or simply because the ailments are minor. I know as I get older I have symptoms of things and I just put it down to age.

https://www.sunraysiadaily.com.au/news/1114540/people-lying-about-coronavirus-symptoms-says-local-doctor

Kelvin Eldridge
www.Mapz.com.au/coronavirusvictoria/

Update: 4/04/2020
A police check of 391 returned travellers resulted in 99 of them not being at home. That's a around 25% of people at the time of the check were breaching the self isolation. This would indicate a much higher percentage breach the self isolation. This probably one of the reasons the government now has people self isolate in hotels.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-cases-in-victoria-grow-as-dozens-of-people-are-caught-breaching-self-isolation-c-956272